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Sao Paulo had a horrible start to the season. The hosts looked to have recovered in the last games, going on a 5 game undefeated run, only to go back to losing ways – getting beaten in the last two rounds by Criciuma and Coritiba. Still, those are top half of the table teams, way better than Ponte Preta. Sao Paulo has a fantastic squad, but things are not working, injuries being one of the reasons. Another one is their abysmal home record, with just two wins in 9 games. They must improve quickly, because at the moment they are on 18th place, 4 points behind the first non-relegation spot.
Ponte Preta plays the worst football in Serie A at the moment, maybe only Nautico is worse. They were ok to start the season, overacheveing, but now they are starting to show their lack of class. The visitors are second to last with 15 points in 18 games and are in catastrophic form, losing their last 6 matches in the league. If you can neutralize their main striker, William, the match is as good as won. This player has scored more than half of Ponte Preta`s goals this season (11 out of 20).
Note that the hosts did not lose to Ponte Preta in the last 6 games and kept a clean sheet against them in the last 4, so match-up seems to favor them. Sao Paulo is the better team, that is a fact, and for once this season they are in better form than their opponents.
Sao Paulo got some players back lately but they are still plagued by injuries. Nevertheless, the first eleven today will be very strong, especially up front with Jadson, Ganso or Luis Fabiano:
Ceni – Miranda, Carlos, Toloi, Reinaldo – Fabricio, Wellington – Jadson, Ganso, Aloisio – Luis Fabiano
Ponte Preta has big problems in defense, with the best centre-back Sarcoman unavailable.
Tigrao – Reggis, Ferron, Betao, Uendel – Baraka, Bob, Chiquinho, Fernando – Rildo, William
If Sao Paulo did one decent thing so far this season, that was defending. They should be able to contain William and keep a clean sheet in the process, so they`ll have the whole game to try and score. With Ponte Preta having to play without their best defender, things are looking good for the hosts. This is a must win game for them, Ponte Preta is playing horrible, so Sao Paulo should be able to get a hugely important 2-0 or 2-1 home win. As poorly as the hosts played, they are showing signs of improvement and they won their matches against teams as weak as Ponte Preta is at the moment.
The odds for Sao Paulo to get the three points are not spectacular but they are fair (and going down), and so I`ll go with big stakes on the home win.
Pick: Sao Paulo
Odds: 1.49 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.41
Event date: 12 September
Editor Facts
- Ocean is 5 for 5 in September
