Scotland – France

Scotland and France will square off at Murrayfield in the 4th round of the Six Nations. France is the odds-on favorite and for good reason, but Scotland will try to build on the win against Italy last time out and get a result at home.

Scotland has played simply horrible rugby in the first two and a half matches in the Six Nations, losing 28-6 to Ireland, 20-0 to England and trailing Italy 13-3 at half time before getting a late (and lucky I might say) win with 21-20 in Rome. It was mostly due to chance and Italy crumbling, but credit to the Scots for pulling off the comeback on the road. Scotland has pretty much avoided the wooden spoon this year and they can now play with a little bit less pressure, and the fans are hoping this will revitalize the team. Scottish rugby is at a real low point right now, the team lacks quality and size, losing serious ground to emerging teams like Georgia.

The scots have been utterly disappointing on the offensive end so far. They can put up a decent gameplan on the wings, but otherwise they simply have no scoring options: poor scrum, light forwards, poor kicking game and penalty game, disastrous line-out taking.

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France was brilliant in defeating England in the first Six Nations game and built on that form with a solid 30-10 win against Italy, but blew it last round in a poor losing effort to Wales (6-27). The offense was extremely poor and the french never seemed to be able to trouble their opponents. They hold an edge over Scotland in pretty much every position and phase of play but this depends on if France will be able to bring their A-game. Playing away will balance things out a little bit. The pitch will be in poor condition (it should rain all day prior to the game) and that will also hurt the visitors. France is riding a 7 game winning streak over Scotland, 3 of those wins coming at Murrayfield.

Lineups

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Alex Dunbar, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Duncan Weir, 9 Greig Laidlaw, 8 Dave Denton, 7 Kelly Brown (c), 6 Johnnie Beattie, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Geoff Cross, 2 Scott Lawson, 1 Ryan Grant.

France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 11 Maxime Médard, 10 Jules Plisson, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Damien Chouly, 7 Alexandre Lapandry, 6 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Pascal Papé, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Brice Mach, 1 Thomas Domingo

This Scotland team is really poor despite the win in Rome and France to win would be the obvious choice here. However, the french are just incredibly unpredictable and playing away in very tough weather conditions, well it might be tricky. I like the under much more here. The line is reasonably set at 36,5 points with the odds going down on the under and I`m not surprise that is happening. Scotland is a disaster on the offensive end, while France has also been very poor offensively in the last game. The tough weather conditions and poor pitch will contribute a lot to preventing tries. I expect a rugged game with a lot of errors and it should come down to the kicking game and penalty taking. My tip is under 36,5 points and I`m very confident in this bet, so high stakes. Prediction: Scotland – France 13-19.

Pick: under 39,5 36,5 points
Odds: 1.90 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.1
Event date: 8 March