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Georgia will be excited by the chance to take on a Tier 1 side like Scotland at Rugby Park in Kilmanrock, in what is last rugby test match of the year for both sides.
After narrowly losing to Australia in their first November test, Scotland bounced back with a 19-16 win over a strong Argentina side. The Scots were indeed lucky to win that after time already expired, but they played very well in those two games and deserved to win at least one of them. After long years of under performing and putting in pathetic performances, Scotland has finally regained its status as a legit Tier 1 Nation in the last two years, getting better and better under the management of Vern Cotter.
Georgia is in full progress as a rugby nation and recent results are supporting their claims to be awarded a place in a new 7 Nations tournament – or at least to be given the chance for a promotion playoff to get into the Six Nations. The Georgians had a great World Cup last year, winning 2 games (Tonga, Namibia) and backed up those performances this year. They demolished everybody in the European Nations Cup (including rivals Romania). They had a brilliant tour in the Pacific over the summer – beating Tonga and Fiji, drawing with Samoa. They also played very well in their two Autumn internationals – losing 22-28 to Japan despite being the dominant team in that match and beating Samoa 20-16 last week.
The point spread is set at 26,5 points, which seems rather high. Scotland hasn`t won by more than 23 points in any of their last 13 games. Yes, they played better teams than Georgia, but there were also matches against Italy, Japan, Samoa or USA – teams comparable or even weaker than the Georgians. It has to be said though that the matchup does seem favorable to Scotland here, as Georgia doesn`t like to play fast, explosive teams that push the ball out wide and run a lot.
Bet on Scotland vs Georgia and get your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet.com now!Team news & lineups:
Scotland will make 5 changes to the lineup that beat Argentina, leaving some strong players out. Georgia will make 3 changes to the lineup that beat Samoa, losing a couple of guys via injury – but the forward pack remains the same, which is good news for The Lelos.
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw(c), 8 Ryan Wilson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Rob Harley, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Del
Georgia: 15 Merab Kvirikashvili, 14 Giorgi Aptsiauri, 13 Merab Sharikadze, 12 Tamaz Mtchedlidze, 11 Sandro Todua, 10 Lasha Malaghuradze, 9 Vasil Lobzhanidze, 8 Beka Bitsadze, 7 Mamuka Gorgodze(c), 6 Vito Kolelishvili, 5 Giorgi Nemsadze, 4 Kote Mikautadze, 3 Levan Chilachava, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili
The matchup is pretty simple here. Scotland has a massive advantage on the wings, they have much more pace than the Georgians and will look to play explosive, running rugby. The Georgians definitely can`t challenge Scotland when the ball will go wide, so expect some big, speedy runs from the hosts that will energize the crowd.
The visitors will try to keep it in the middle and play physical, slow rugby. Georgia has one of the best scrums and some of the best forwards in the game, so expectations are they will actually dominate Scotland in that department – especially since the Scots will not start their strongest pack. There`s also the fact that the game will be played on a narrow pitch, which will favor the type of rugby Georgia wants to play, making it a bit more difficult for Scotland to find spaces out wide.
The Scots have already played their big matches in these Autumn Internationals and got an excellent win against Argentina last week. This is more like a recovery game for them, they didn`t even schedule it at Murrayfield and will not field their absolute best starting lineup. Meanwhile, Georgia has waited for this opportunity for years and it will be one of the biggest matches in their history. Georgia’s performance today will actually shape the Nation’s rugby future, as a bad loss would destroy their claims of getting into the Six Nations and set them back years.
Motivation is not often a factor in Rugby and Scotland will definitely put in the effort, but fact is that there is much more at stake for Georgia, this has the feeling of a World Cup match for them. They will look for that extra gear, while Scotland does not have to.
Scotland will win and will score a few great wing tries, but Georgia will be extremely competitive in the pysicial matchup and will slow the game enough to cover the spread. The line is very high, so I expect Georgia to stay well within it.
I do see the risk of Georgia collapsing under pressure, that is a possibility against a dangerous team like Scotland, which plays at home, has no pressure and is explosive and fast. However, that is something we can not anticipate and I trust that the bet on the visitors makes sense. My tip is Georgia to cover the 26,5 handicap. Prediction: Scotland – Georgia 35 – 14.
Pick: Georgia +26,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Bet365
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7
Event date: 26 November
