Scotland – Ireland

The 2016 Six Nations will kick off on Saturday with a meeting at Murrayfield between two fine sides, in the form of Scotland and Ireland.

This will be the last tournament with Vern Cotter in charge for Scotland, as the manager is set to leave fort Montpellier. Cotter is largely responsible for Scotland’s improvement in recent years, although he did benefit from a generation of emerging players. The Scots finished 4th last year, ahead of France and Italy and performed very well in the following tests. They beat Japan twice in June and were excellent in November: beating Argentina and Georgia, while losing to Australia by a single point.

Ireland only finished 3rd last year in the Six Nations after winning the tournament 2 consecutive times, but even so the year ended up being historically good for the Irish. They became the first Northern Hemisphere team in the last 14 years to beat the Top 3 Southern Hemisphere sides in the same calendar year. Their November heroics with fantastic wins against New Zealand and Australia made Ireland a legit Top 4 side in World Rugby and they enter the Six Nations as favorites according to many experts – mainly because they have a very favorable schedule, but also because England is dealing with some injuries.

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Team news & lineups:

WP Nel is Scotland’s main absentee and he`ll be badly missed at scrum time, where Scotland was already set to suffer against Ireland. The Irish found out a few days ago that No.10 Sexton has been ruled out. Paddy Jackson proved himself an adequate replacement so Ireland should cope with Sexton missing, but his absence will still hurt them. Trimble and O’Mahony are other important missings for the visitors.

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 Josh Strauss, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Ryan Wilson, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Allan Dell

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadgh Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath

This should be a close game and the stakes are definitely high. If Scotland wins or even if they draw, their outside shot at winning the Six Nations becomes palpable and the tournament will be broken wide open. If Ireland wins, they retain their status at favorites and make it a two team affair, with everything set to be decided in the last weekend in Dublin – when Ireland hosts England.

Having said that, I do believe we will see an entertaining game of rugby here, with tries and points to show for.

Scotland and Ireland play arguably the most entertaining rugby in the Northern Hemisphere. Scotland is definitely the team that loves running rugby the most and their speedy backs can score tries from nothing. As for Ireland, they do have a very strong pack (and should dominate Scotland in that department), but they also play very well out wide.

In the Autumn Internationals, there was an average of 46.3 points scored in Scotland’s three matches and 55.75 points scored in Ireland’s four matches. THe 52-21 win over Canada dragged the average up for Ireland, but it would have still been way above 41 points (which is today`s under / over line).

Expect Scotland to play their usual brand of running rugby and they should score a couple of tries against an Irish team that did not look to good at the back in the Autumn Internationals (even Canada scored 3 tries against them). On the other hand, Ireland is simply too strong overall to not score 20+ points themselves. The matchup between these two teams seems set to produce points, as it was the case in the last three H2H meetings. They finished 35-25, 28-22 and 40-10 (all Irish wins).

One thing that does not work in favor of the over is the weather, with slight precipitations expected on Saturday, but forecast suggests very little or no rain at game time and the pitch is expected to be in great condition. My tip here will be over 40,5 total points to be scored. Prediction: Scotland – Ireland 24 – 26.

Pick: over 40,5 points
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 4 February