Scotland – Japan

Scotland will make its Rugby World Cup debut against the incredible side of Japan, which shocked the world with the win over Springboks on Saturday. And with a win under their belt, the Japanese have suddenly transformed this clash against Scotland into one that could have a massive impact over qualification from the group.

Poor old Scotland continues to struggle, despite making changes after changes and hoping for big things every year. This season they got the wooden spoon in the Six Nations, losing all matches, including against Italy. An appalling result for them but, strangely enough, Scotland actually looks better than in the last years. The Scots were competitive in all Six Nations matches, staying within touching distance and the loss against Italy was a fluke, coming in the last minute. Scotland had a point difference of -55, compared to -120 for Italy. Vern Cotter really strengthened this Scotland side and the feeling is they will do good things in the RWC.

Japan came into this tournament expected to fight it out with USA for the last place, but they produced one of the biggest upsets in sports history with a 34-32 win over the Springboks. It doesn`t really matter that South Africa was dreadful, had a one dimensional game plan and clearly took the win for granted – all credit must go to Japan, particularly for their mentality to give up a sure draw in extra time and risk the win. But that colossal win will have its side effects, particularly on the physical side, as Japan now has to play a fresh Scotland side after just 4 days.

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Lineups:

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw, 8 David Denton, 7 John Hardie, 6 Ryan Wilson, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 WP Nel, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson

Japan: 15 Ayumu Goromaru, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Male Sau, 12 Yu Tamura, 11 Kenki Fukuoka, 10 Harumichi Tatekawa, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Michael Broadhurst, 6 Michael Leitch (c), 5 Justin Ives, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Hiroshi Yamashita, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki

Clearly Japanese rugby is improving, but they still are a second tier team at best in World Rugby and beating South Africa will not make them contenders all of a sudden. Scotland is still a better team and will win this game, but there`s more about the match than just quality difference.

It will be almost impossible for Japan to recover after the South Africa match, mentally and especially physically. Their forwards made a huge effort in that game and it`s doubtful they will be able to come in with the same energy. The coach will also have to rest 6 regulars for this clash, which will make a big difference for a team that does not have too much depth. Scotland on the other hand is fresh, rested and is now warned about Japan. There`s no way the Scots will treat this game lightly, like South Africa obviously did. They will also not repeat South Africa’s mistakes to forfeit penalties hoping for tries and to blindly keep the same game plan based on forwards play. Expect variation from Scotland and I can see their top man, No.15 Stuart Hogg, with at least 1 try on the wing against Japan’s fatigued backs.

The Brits won the previous meeting in 2013, 42-17, after a 100-8 win in 2004. Scotland is the better team, they will be well rested, 100% focused and wary of Japan’s strength in the pack. Look for the Scots to dominate and run away with the game in the later stages of the match, when Japan will collapse. My tip is Scotland to win and cover the 16,5 point handicap. Prediction: Scotland – Japan 34 – 11.

Pick: Scotland -16,5
Odds: 1.92 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 23 September