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Serbia hosts Albania after barely getting a 1-1 draw in Armenia in the weekend. It was the first match for the hosts in this Group and they did not look too good … now will have to recover the points at home vs. a team that defeated Portugal and finished 1-1 with Albania. Serbia has a very talented and young team with players from the Premier League and at home they are rightfully favored by the odds at 1.50, but that does not mean the game will be easy and the analysis goes deeper than just quality.
Coach Dick Advocaat will send on the pitch a very similar team to the match in Armenia and Serbia is close to a full bill of health with all their stars ready to start today. Looking at the statistics, in the last 11 matches Serbia lost only to Brazil (0-1) and at home has not lost since.
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Albania shocked Portugal 1-0 in the first round of the Euro 2016 qualifications … and went on to hold Denmark for a draw to gain 4 points in this group and have a real chance for one of the first three places. An analysis will reveal that the backbone of the Albanian team is a great defense organization and very good tactical discipline. They play smart football and are hard to score against (in the last 8 matches they allowed only 3 goals which is an amazing statistic for a team like Albania). For sure Albania will come in Serbia with confidence of getting at least a draw.
Albania is so well organized and so tight at the back and Serbia was not too dangerous in front of goal lately, so my bet here will be under 2,5 goals. Albania will defend with discipline and effort while Serbia will struggle to create chances. For sure Serbia will eventually score at one point (scored in 10 of the last 11 matches) but they don’t have the killer instinct to finish games off and I think they will again end with maximum 1 goal to their name (like in the last 4 matches). Serbia might win but 1-1 is not out of the question either in my opinion. My tip is under 2,5 goals. Correct score prediction: Serbia – Albania 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.67 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.36
Event date: 14 October
