Serbia – Wales

Serbia hosts Wales in Group D of the World Cup qualifiers. Wales and Austria were the favorites before the group began, but they are tied with 7 points each for the 3rd and 4th places – while Serbia and Ireland lead Group C with 11 points each.

Serbia is finally looking capable of qualifying for a final tournament after a few years of misery. The Serbs haven`t been spectacular in this group, despite leading it, but they did wat was required – and nothing more. The hosts are coming after a 3-1 win in Georgia, after previously failing to find a win for 3 consecutive matches (two friendlies and a 1-1 draw in Wales).

The visitors are 4 points behind both Serbia and Ireland, which is not an ideal situation for them. However, Wales will have a very easy schedule after this match in Serbia, so any kind of result here will give them an honest shot at qualifying. Wales is actually undefeated in this group, but won just once in 5 matches – all of their last 4 games ending in draws.

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Team news: The big news is that Gareth Bale is suspended, a huge blow for Wales, a team which constructs its entire gameplan around the Real Madrid superstar. Other absentees for Wales are Taylor, Robson-Kanu, King, Collins and Woodburn, while Serbia has all its important players available.

This has the makings of a low scoring, tight clash.

Serbia has an 11-6 goal difference in this group and can definitely score, but they don`t want to risk a defeat here – a loss would put qualification in mortal danger, while a draw will still keep Serbia safe in the Top 2.

Wales on the other hand is a defensive minded team (their last 3 matches saw a total of 4 goals), and without Bale their offensive threat will be low.

Despite being behind in the standings, the Welsh would surely be satisfied with a draw here – especially since a loss would virtually knock them out of contention. They host both Austria and Ireland in their remaining matches, having accessible road games in Georgia and Moldova. The schedule is perfect and they will get Bale back, so this game is more about survival for the Welsh.

I expect the visitors to rely on their defense and approach this match very cautiously, maybe trying to protect a 0-0. Serbia should have more of the ball, but they have no reason to risk much.

This seems like it will be a boring, slow and uneventful clash, with both teams more concerned about not losing than about winning. The previous meeting last year in Wales was much of the same, ending 1-1 with the under never being in doubt – and Wales had Bale, who actually scored. My tip is under 2,5 goals. If you`re looking for better odds and maybe more value, I like the draw as well. Prediction: Serbia – Wales 0-0.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.65 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.20
Event date: 11 June