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Serena Williams is the clear cut favorite to win the US Open right now with odds of around 1.50 to lift the trophy, but Ekaterina Makarova will take confidence coming into this semifinal from having beaten Serena before.
The world No.1 struggled this year with her game, but it seems she found her groove in the US summer, winning Cincinnati and playing good tennis at the US Open. Serena is not quite at her best yet, but she rarely needs her best tennis to cruise trough the WTA draws. Williams was dominant and did not lose a set (actually won all 6-3 or less), but she did not face any dangerous opponent, Penneta being the only favorite she encountered. Serena is playing ok and I reckon she`ll win the tournament given the current state of the WTA, but she does look vulnerable and, as I said, is not at her absolute best.
Makarova is playing the best tennis of her life right now. The Russian did not lose a set herself but had a tougher road to the semifinals, having to go trough Bouchard (7-6 6-4) and Azarenka (6-4 6-2) to reach this stage. Ekaterina plays an offensive brand of tennis, she`s a left handed big hitter who can make real damage on her day, as seen during this US Open. She`s in excellent form and her shots are going in, but beating Serena will still require a monumental effort from her part.
Serena leads the H2H 3-1, all meetings being played on hard courts. She also has a 7-6 6-0 win against the Russian this season at Dubai, but Makarova has a Grand Slam win against Serena under her belt, in the 2012 at the Australian Open. Clearly Williams is the much better player here, but Makarova`s left handed power shots are certain to put some pressure on her.
Serena`s struggles against power hitters are well documented. Most of her losses on the big stage came against big hitters with big serves, we can remember Lisicki at Wimbledon 2013 and the list can go on, Ivanovic and Muguruza were also hitting the ball like crazy when they beat Serena at the Australian Open and Roland Garros this season. Of course, if Serena is on her day she is almost a lock to win this but she is not at her top level right now and did not meet quality opposition, so she looks a little vulnerable – and a type of player like Makarova is the perfect one to take advantage.
I actually think this match has the circumstances for a huge upset, but of course that`s a long shot. My tip is Makarova +5,5 handicap, surely she will be able to hold her own and at least keep this close even if Serena will play very well – thus the handicap is within her reach. A close Serena win seems like the likely scenario. The odds are dropping on Ekaterina. Prediction: Serena Williams – Ekaterina Makarova 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Makarova (+5,5)
Odds: 2.00 @ Bet365
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7
Event date: 5 September
