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Sevilla hosts Fiorentina in the Europa League semifinals.
The odds clearly reflect that Spanish football is better than Italian football. But these clubs are very very similar in style and in philosophy. Let me go on with the analysis and explain. Sevilla has a big fan base, has a very big squad, a lot of players being bought with very little money, very good transfers. Fiorentina is doing exactly the same they have a great depth, fought hard in all 3 competitions, but now seem to be running only in EL. I like Fiorentina more than Sevilla, because Sevilla is still fighting for 4th place in Spain (which provides access to CL, just like the EL does). Fiorentina meanwhile, for the last 2 weeks rotated heavily just with this game in mind. So Fiorentina comes into this game with better motivation and focus, whereas for Sevilla, it’s just another important game.
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Sevilla is a very disciplined team, a very organized team that knows how to win but they often do it without impressing. Fiorentina is the “little” Barcelona of Italy, they really play very, very well but are not always rewarded with points. However, vs a pragmatical Sevilla, Fiornetina’s style will work, because Sevilla is not used to play teams that want to dominate possession. Sevilla will be surprised by the Italians attitude, they will have trouble scoring because the midfield of Fiorentina is very good, in both phases of the game, and they will really struggle to create good chances.
And the last argument for this analysis and pick is the mediocre quality of the strikers of the two teams. Both Bacca (who will prbably be in the starting lineup instead of Gameiro) and Gomez are modest. Bacca is just collecting the rewards for a very well organized side, he is just putting the ball in from easy positions, well this will not be an easy game. Gomez meanwhile will have a really hard time scoring because there will not be many air balls for him and because quality wise, he is poor nowadays.
Under 2.5 goals is my prediction and I will bet my classic 8 units stake on this tip.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.95 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.60
Event date: 7 May
