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FC Sevilla hosts Zenit Sankt Petersburg in the first leg of this Europa League quarterfinal tie.
Sevilla won both matches vs. Villarreal in the previous stage (5-2 aggregate) to reafirm their experience and motivation in the Europa League. The trophy holders just love this competitions. Sevilla enters this match in marvelous form … in the last 8 matches they won 7 times and got a draw with Barcelona this weekend … coming back from 0-2 down. It was only the second time in over 2 years that Sevilla allowed 2 goals at home. They kept a clean sheet in 11 of the last 14 matches at home. Hosts have a full squad available, only keeper Beto is doubtful, but he lost his place to Sergio Rico in the last weeks anyway.
Sevilla projected lineup:
Rico – Diogo, Pareja, Carrico, Tremoulinas – Iborra, Mbia – Vitolo, Banega, Vidal – Bacca
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Zenit played very effective and pragmatic football in the two knockout rounds of Europa League … 4-0 aggregate vs. PSV and 2-1 aggregate vs. Torino. Especially at home they relied mostly on an organized defense and a slow possession game … a bit surprising considering the talent they have up front, but this has been Zenit’s approach also in the Champions League group stage. Visitors are coming after a 1-1 draw with Rubin Kazan … but they are virutually champions in Russia and were having this game vs. Sevilla in mind. It was the only time they failed to win a game since the reverse leg vs. Torino.
Zenit has a number of key players missing for today: Hulk, Danny, Smolnikov, Criscito and Faizun will not be in the lineup.
Zenit projected lineup:
Lodygin – Anyukov, Lombaerts, Garay, Neto – Witsel, Tymoshchuk, Garcia – Shatov, Rondon, Arshavin
Looking at Sevilla’s excellent clean sheet record at home and looking how pragmatic and defensive Zenit played in Europe this season, under 2,5 goals seems like a very good bet. It will also be facilitated by the fact that Hulk and Danny are suspended … huge loss for Zenit’s offensive power. I think Sevilla will win a very close game, but the best bet is on the under / over market … I really don’t understand how the bookmakers can put up odds of almost evens on this kind of bet when they know the results of these two teams, their style of football (Sevilla at home and Zenit in Europe) and Zenit’s missings. My tip will be under 2,5 goals. Correct score prediction: FC Sevilla – Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.30
Event date: 16 April
