S. Kalev – Krasnodar

Estonian club Sillamae Kalev plays hosts to Russian team FC Krasnodar in the first Leg of the Europa League qualies 2nd round.

Sillamae Kalev is not really one of the top 3-4 teams from Estonia but they took advantage of struggles of Flora Tallinn and finished 3rd last year, but way behind Levadia Tallinn and Nomme Kajlu. And we saw Levadia Talinn destroyed 7-0 by Sparta Prague a couple of days ago … Estonian football is in a crisis now and their results in Europe in recent years are absolutely horrible, we can see clubs from Malta or Luxembourg doing better. But even so Kalev got a famos qualification in the first round over Honga from Finland. But it looks like more of an accident, they qualified with a goal in the last second in the reverse leg and are playing very poorly in the league: 8th place after 19 rounds, lost last match 1-0 to Flora.

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FC Krasnodar has invested big money in the last few years and as a result they finished on an European spot last year ahead of Spartak Moscow, Rubin Kazan or rivals Kuban. The visitors have a lot of top class football players and have been one of the best road teams last year so they have no struggles playing away. Krasnodar is still in pre-season break but they were very good in pre-season friendlies and 6 days ago they beat Olympiakos 2-0. Krasnodar might choose to rest 2-3 players from the starting lineup for this game but mostly the strongest lineup will be on the pitch.

The visitors are in another world of football than Sillamae Kalev at the moment and it is not unreasonable to predict a big win for them even if the hosts have one advantage: that they are in the middle of the league, while Krasnodar is in preparation period. Maybe it will not be another “Sparta Prague – Levadia” episode, but Kuban should win without any kind of problems and cover a 2-3 goal handicap in the process. My tip will be Krasnodar to win with a 2,5 goal handicap, already a bet with dropping odds. Correct score prediction: Sillamae Kalev – FC Krasnodar 0-3.

Pick: Krasnodar (-2,5)
Odds: 2.35 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.45
Event date: 17 July