Halep – Petkovic

The second semifinal of the women`s Roland Garros tournament will feature two players that have never reached this stage of a Grand Slam before.

Simona Halep’s emergence in the last year has been nothing short of impressive. The Romanian suddenly started winning tournament after tournament in the second half of last year and she continued her fantastic run in 2014. Halep entered Roland Garros ranked 4th in the world and remained the top seed in the tournament after the 3rd round. She played solid tennis so far, she won all matches with 6-4 or less in every set, not losing a single one so far. On the other hand she did show some variations in the level of play against Stephens in the 4th round and did not face top opposition, but that was until yesterday, when she played an excellent match against an in-form and dangerous Kuznetsova. Indeed the 6-2 6-2 scoreline was a little harsh and Svetlana called the medic after the 1st set, but the russian tried everything and I have to admit it was a really, really good performance from Halep, despite the fact that I tipped Kuznetsova to win.

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Despite having a great comeback season, Petkovic was never expected to reach the semifinals at Roland Garros, but the 28th seeded German upset all odds – however, her road to the semis was very hard. Andrea needed 3 sets to overcome Voegele, Mladenovic and Bertens before winning 6-2 6-2 against Errani yesterday, a massive surprise. Still, it wasn`t such an impressive performance as the score suggests and it requires a deeper analysis. The Italian was nowhere to be found in that match, being very troubled by the wind and seemingly fatigued (she even said that she was tired). Errani`s serve and especially second serve was terrifyingly weak, Petkovic could attack it at will, 3 meters inside the court. Andrea did play well and was hitting power shots all over the place but Errani was just very poor, barely hitting the ball over the net and unable to respond at all, making the German look better than she really was.

The H2H is 2-1 for Halep (1-1 on clay) with the Romanian winning the last 2 meetings (both last year, in minimum sets). An analysis of the matchup will not see any player having special weapons or a tactical advantage over the other.

I can anticipate Halep easily outplaying Petkovic today and winning in a convincing manner. The fast and feisty Romanian will be a totally different ask for Petkovic compared to a weak, slow and powerless Errani that was a shadow of herself. Halep has excellent movement and defensive skills, she proved it again against Kuznetsova, and will always force Petkovic to hit another shot, something that Errani was unable to do. Petkovic was very shaky in this tournament, she did not show a level compatible with a Grand Slam semifinal and I fully expect her to lose against a better player which is also in better form and better suited for this surface.

Look for Halep to force a lot of errors from Petkovic and impose her superiority early. The only thing working for the German is that Halep (like Errani) has a weak second serve and had problems in the past against power hitters (but she overcame those issues). All in all, my ttip is Halep to win 2-0. The odds are going downhill on this bet. Prediction: Simona Halep – Andrea Petkovic 6-4 6-2.

Pick: Halep 2:0
Odds: 1.83 @ Bet365
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.30
Event date: 5 June