Halep – Wozniacki

Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki will fight for their first ever Grand Slam title, as well as for the number 1 spot in the rankings, when the two meet in the Australian Open final on Saturday morning (European time).

Simona Halep had some issues early in the tournament, suffering an injury scare in the first round and then almost losing against Davis in the third round, edging that one 15-13 in the decider. However, Halep has been brilliant after that, making light work of Osaka and Pliskova before winning a fantastic match against Kerber in the semifinals (6-3 4-6 9-7). It was a brilliant, high level affair, both players squandering match points until Halep finally won.

Caroline Wozniacki lost two sets so far during the tournament, in the second round against Fett and in the quarterfinals against Suarez Navarro. However, the only time she was in danger of losing was against Fett, when she trailed 1-5 in the third set and had to save match points. The Dane has been consistent all tournament and is coming after a very impressive two set win against the red hot Belgian Elise Mertens.

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Wozinacki leads the H2H 4-2 (2-2 on hard), and won the last three meetings, including a 6-0 6-2 victory a couple of months ago in the WTA World Tour finals, so this analysis suggests Caroline has a slight matchup advantage. Both players are great baseline defenders, but Halep is the slightly more aggressive player, so she will be the one with the initiative more often than not.

Halep will likely play how she did against Kerber, when she also had to be the slightly more aggressive player, so that semifinal will serve as great practice for her – especially considering how well Halep performed. The Romanian was brilliant in what was a superb matchup, and she will feel that bringing a similar level for the final will be enough for her first Grand Slam title.

However, Wozniacki (who did have a slightly easier draw) was exceptional herself in the way she controlled and beat Mertens, a player which was in absolute top form, some saying she was playing the best tennis on the WTA draw at that point.

Both Halep and Caroline are in great shape ahead of this final, but Wozniacki should be more rested. Halep already had two marathon matches and also suffered that injury scare in her first round. After the Kerber match, Halep admitted that she does feel tired.

Wozniacki is a player which can hit the ball back at you all day long, so this will be another physical test for Simona Halep, and it may eventually prove to bee too much for her.

Wozniacki has also dominated the H2H with the Romanian lately, so this and the fitness factor will be two massive advantages for her to have.

Neither player has won a Grand Slam final so far, and both lost two finals, so it could also become a battle of nerves. Halep and Wozniacki have both been chokers over time and both could be in danger of collapsing mentally, but at least Wozniacki won the World Tour finals a few months ago, so that could have given her extra confidence. Halep also suffered a complete meltdown in her last GS final last year at Roland Garros. So with these facts in mind, I tend to believe Wozniacki should be more stable mentally, although it`s impossible to say.

All in all, I reckon Wozniacki with her regularity game from the baseline will have enough to defeat Halep, and if the match goes to distance she should be the more fresh player (which might prove to be the X factor). My tip is Wozniacki to win and I will invest maximum stakes on this bet, one of the reasons being the odds on Caroline, which I feel represent value. Prediction: Simona Halep – Caroline Wozniacki 6-4 5-7 4-6.

Pick: Wozniacki
Odds: 2.36 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 13.60
Event date: 27 January