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Two of the emerging young guns on the WTA tour will square off in the Miami quarterfinals, with Halep a desirving 1.35 favorite due to her vastly superior consistency and long term form.
One might argue that Halep is the most in form player on tour right now. She lost just one match this season (Makarova, Australian Open) and is on the back of the best performance of her career, winning the Indian Wells title. However, it is a fact that Simona is not playing her best tennis, something she admitted herself. The Indian Wells triumph was a combination of good (but not spectacular) form, luck of the draw and fighting spirit – she did not meet any Top 10 players and won 4 of her 5 matches in 3 sets.
Here in Miami Halep started off with another 3 set win over Vaidisova, before winning two close 2 setters against Giorgi and Penneta (with Penneta leading 5-2 in the 2nd set). Overall, it`s interesting to note that Halep needed a deciding set in 8 of her last 11 matches (all wins).
Sloane Stephens could not back up her early results on the tour and the young American dropped out of the Top 40. However, this week in Miami she finally managed to regain her best level, playing some excellent tennis to win all her matches in straight sets (Wickmayer, Keys, Larsson, Bencic). Only once did she go above 6-4 in the set, in the last match against Bencic (6-4 7-6). The American is looking close to her best level right now, really cutting down on her unforced errors, but it has to be said that Halep will be another category of opponent and she will keep forcing Sloane to hit the extra shot.
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The Head 2 Head is 2-2 with Halep winning the last meeting, but the Romanian won both her matches on clay. Stephens clearly dominated Halep on hard court, leaving her with just 6 games in two matches, both in 2013. Obviously the Head 2 Head suggests Stephens is the better player on Hard courts and she is – but it won`t be the same this time around, as Halep is better and Stephens hasn`t showed that 2013 level from some time until this week.
There`s every reason to believe that Stephens will be able to win at least one set here. Firstly, the stats don’t lie – 8 of the last 11 Halep wins were in three sets. Also, you expect the Romanian to maybe be a little tired after playing so many tough matches in the last few weeks, which is actually one of the reasons she always loses her focus for one set, even when she wins in straight (we saw that against Pennetta). Stephens is the perfect player to take advantage – she can be unstoppable when she`s in the zone and she WILL be in the zone at some point today, as she was in every match so far – that will be the moment when Halep loses focus and Sloane takes a set.
All in all it can be said that Stephens played better tennis this week, but it will be different against Halep and I expect the Romanian’s consistency, confidence and baseline game to eventually prevail. But everything points to a close one. My tip is Stephens +1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Simona Halep – Sloane Stephens 6-4 1-6 6-3.
Live streaming for Halep vs. Stephens available at Bet365 for all funded accounts.
Pick: Stephens +1,5 sets
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.2
Event date: 1 April
