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Slovenia and Australia will meet in Tokyo on Saturday in the bronze medal match of the Olympic basketball tournament.
Slovenia has been arguably the most exciting team in these Olympics. Having won a qualifying tournament right before the event, they entered Tokyo with momentum and have beaten everybody, including Spain, up until the semifinals. Unfortunately for Slovenia, Luka Doncic (who had a monster tournament) got injured during the semis and could not shoot in the fourth quarter, which helped France to edge the game by the skin of their teeth. It was 90-89, with Nic Batum blocking Prepelic’s potential game winning layup with two seconds to go.
Australia has also had a great tournament, starting with the pre-Tokyo exhibition matches where they beat Team USA, and continuing with a great performance in the Olympics. The Boomers won all their matches in the group stage, demolished Argentina in the quarters, and were looking great with a 15 point lead in the semifinals against Team USA. However, the Americans were just too strong in the second half and in the end won comfortably: 97-78.
Slovenia is the favorite here, but odds on the Aussies are dropping and I think that is normal and fair. I don’t think the Aussies should be underdogs.
Both teams have played great so far, Slovenia was probably even more impressive than Australia, but how much do the Slovenians have left in the tank? Sure, the bronze medal would be huge for them and they will give it their all. But you have to worry about their mental state after such a heartbreaking loss in the semifinals. You could see they were absolutely devastated after Batum blocked that late layup by Prepelic.
Also there’s Luka Doncic’s wrist injury. He said he’s fine and he probably will be, but Slovenia needs him at 100%. The Slovenians have great chemistry and good, decent players, but aside from Doncic and Cancar (Nuggets fringe player) they don’t really have top talent. As I said their players are good (Tobey and Prepelic in particular), but there isn’t anybody to even make an All-Euroleague team, ever.
Australia on the other hand has 5 NBA players, plus Dellavedova who just left the league after eight years. They also have Thybulle who at this point is one of the best wing defenders in basketball, Ingles is also another great defender, so they will make things tough for Luka, especially if the Mavs star is not at 100%.
I just think Slovenia is shattered emotionally after going out like that in the semis, Luka may not be at one hundred percent, and Australia is one of the toughest opponents they could meet, and it’s also an opponent which has answers for Doncic.
It would really be a shame and unfair for Slovenia to miss out on a medal after playing absolutely fantastic basketball all tournament, but unfortunately I think that is what’s going to happen. Look for Australia to win the bronze medal here, it would be their first one after FOUR fourth place finishes in Olympic basketball. Prediction: Slovenia – Australia 82 – 88.
Pick: Australia
Odds: 2.13 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.04
Event date: 8 August
