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The Grand final of the 2017 Eurobasket will see Slovenia take on Serbia in Istanbul, with the clash appearing to be very evenly matched on paper.
Slovenia has been simply excellent so far in the tournament, winning all their games and playing some fantastic fast paced basketball. The Slovenians have just one NBA player in their ranks, Miami`s star point guard Goran Dragic (who will retire from the NT after the final), but they have an excellent group of players who clicked just at the right time. Led by Miami`s Dragic and Real Madrid’s wonderkid Doncic (who should be the No.1 pick in next year’s NBA draft), Slovenia murdered the mighty Spain by 20 points in the semifinals.
Serbia reached the final despite coming into the tournament without three of their best players, Teodosic (Clippers), Jokic (Nuggets) and Bjelica (Wolves) – leaving them with two NBA players, Marjanovic (Pistons) and Bogdanovic (Kings), who led the team so far. The Serbs lost just one match along the way, in the group stages against Russia, but got their revenge over the Russians in the semifinals. However, Serbia almost blew a 16 point second half lead in that match, with Russia rallying within 2 points but eventually losing by 8.
Bet on Slovenia vs. Serbia and claim your 100% (100 Eur) free bet at Ohmbet now!Slovenia has been hands down the best team in the tournament so far, and their backcourt with Dragic and Doncic has created havoc. Their demolition of Spain in the semifinals has been remarkable and although Slovenia probably won`t shoot as well from three point range this time around (they were 14/25 vs Spain), they don`t need to – unless they want to win by 20 again.
Serbia wasn`t that impressive in this tournament, they had many close matches and almost chocked in the semis against a hardworking, honest Russian team, but a Russian team which was not at the level of the other semifinalists. The absence of playmaker Teodosic has been felt, with Serbia focusing on establishing dominance under the rim, where Marjanovic, Kuzmic or Macvan have all been great.
The Serbs will surely attempt to play the same way and impose a dominating presence in the frontcourt, while in the backcourt they will mostly rely on Bogdanovic ISO. However, Slovenia was brilliant in neutralizing the Gasol and Hernangomez brothers in the semifinal, so they will feel they can do the same thing to Serbia’s big men.
The Slovenians should win this game, they played the best basketball in this event and it`s hard to pick them to lose against anybody, let alone against a Serbia team which was very good, but not great. Look for Dragic and Doncic to have big nights again, as Serbia’s backcourt doesn`t seem suited to stop them.
The Serbs obviously have plenty of experience and own a lot of weapons themselves, they are a team which can show up in big matches and can never be discounted. But the logical bet here is a Slovenian victory, and it should be a winner if the two teams play in a similar manner to how they played so far.
All in all, my tip here is Slovenia to win. I think my analysis might even warrant a bet with max stakes, but I am giving the Serbians the respect they deserve and will invest no more than 8 units. Prediction: Slovenia – Serbia 83 – 74.
Pick: Slovenia
Odds: 1.90 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 17 September
