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Just two rounds left in the Rugby Championship and South Africa are playing with the prospect of a deciding home game against New Zealand for the title in the last round. Australia is way behind on 3rd place with only 4 points, 10 behind today`s opponents. The Springboks take on the Wallabies today on Newlands Stadium, Cape Town.
After the unlucky defeat in the 2011 World Cup against Australia, South Africa began building what is not clearly the 2nd best team in international Rugby. The Springboks have the quality to even challenge New Zealand, as they expended on their classic kick and run game, now having a vast repertoire. South Africa is of course still the best kick and run team in the world, but they also have the best pack there is, they are excellent on the wings and have a great number of options both in attack and defense. The Springboks have played brilliant in this tournament, easily dispatching Argentina (twice, 73-13 at home), beating Australia away (38-12) and losing to New Zealand on the road (15-29), but after having to play with 14 men for a whole half due to Bismarck du Plessis` red card. That loss ended a 9 match unbeaten run.
Australia is trying to build a competitive squad after losing steam in the last 1-2 years. The visitors are very poor at the forwards position, lack cohesion and are pretty far from the level of South Africa or New Zealand at the moment. Even the British & Irish Lions destroyed them 41-16 earlier this year. The Wallabies have one win and three losses so far in the Championship, their only success being a pathetic 14-13 home win against Argentina.
The visitors will have the monumental task to contain South Africa`s pack. Australia was demolished at home in this department and this is set to happen again, as the Springboks forwards are just to powerful for the Wallabies. With a huge match-up disadvantage in the pack there`s not really much else the Wallabies can do. If they try to tighten in the center, they will be punished by South Africa`s versatility to open the game to their fast running backs like Bryan Habana.
Lineups
South Africa: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Flip van der Merwe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 James Horwill (c), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 James Slipper.
Argentina did not win in Newlands since 1992 and the trend is not bound to break today. The Wallabies only have their fame to show for, as they are at least a level below their opponents. With the quality and match-up advantage on pretty much every phase of play, South Africa is set to destroy Australia, as they did three weeks ago on the road. They have to win in order to assure that winner take all game against New Zealand in the last round. Look for the hosts to outmuscle their opponents and terrorize the Wallabies at set pieces with their huge advantage in the pack. There is no wonder the line is increasing on this one, as I can not see any conceivable reason for Australia to cover the spread except the rivalry factor. My pick is South Africa to win with a score in the region of 40-15 on the back of at least 4 tries for the Springboks. Bet of the week for me, so my suggestion is maximum stakes.
Pick: South Africa (-12,5)
Odds: 2.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 28 September
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 0 for 1 in the 2013 Rugby Championship
- Rostick won the last two 10 units tips
