South Africa – Australia

With two rounds left to go in the 2017 Rugby Championship, South Africa hosts Australia in a match that could decide the team which will finish second in the tournament.

South Africa seemed to be improving after a dreadful 2016, winning their first 5 matches in 2017 convincingly (France 3 times in June, Argentina twice), before claiming a 23-23 draw in Australia – a match in which South Africa was arguably the better team. The Springboks traveled to New Zealand last round with high hopes, but they ended up being completely outplayed, suffering the biggest loss in South African rugby history (0-57) – bringing back questions about their coaching & management.

Australia entered the Rugby Championship in a bad state, with their domestic club rugby being in shambles, and many expected them to have a very poor tournament. Australia proved the doubters wrong so far, although their performances were still shaky and inconsistent. The Wallabies opened with two matches against New Zealand, playing toe to toe with the All Blacks for three halves out of four and almost beating them in Dunedin. They followed that up with a rather poor showing at home against South Africa (23-23), and went on to beat Argentina 45-20 at home in the last round.

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Team news & lineups:

South Africa will make 4 changes to the lineup that was humbled last round in New Zealand. Australia will give first ever starts to no less than 3 guys (Koroibete, Rodda and Dempsey). There are no game changing injuries or suspensions to be reported.

South Africa: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Uzair Cassiem, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Marika Koroibete, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Jack Dempsey, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott Sio

South Africa’s progress this year has been overrated. They beat a shorthanded and tired French team three times in June, then claimed comfortable wins against a declining Argentina and drew with an Australian side that played really poorly. The 0-57 humiliation at the hands of New Zealand two weeks ago came to confirm all that.

However, if South Africa were overrated a couple of weeks ago, now they are actually underrated. The Boks did make clear progress this year, just not as much as most people believed. They can not be judged on the basis of that 57 point humiliation against the All Blacks, a match in which everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Boks.

The Springboks will be desperate to bounce back at home after what happened two weeks ago, and luckily for them Australia is not in a better spot than them.

The Wallabies have been shaky all tournament and even though they had some stretches of brilliant rugby, mostly in that match in New Zealand in the second round which they almost won, fact is that they are struggling. Their club rugby is in a big crisis and the team looks inconsistent and vulnerable, particularly at scrum time. The Wallabies got past Argentina 45-20 last round, but they trailed at half time and they won by as much only because Argentina got tired after putting in a huge effort the previous week against the All Blacks.

Neither team is looking great right now, but South Africa does look like the better team, and they proved that by claiming a 23-23 draw in Perth last month – a match they should have arguably won. What`s more, South Africa has two key advantages here, which should see them take home the win – one is the scrum, the other is playing at home.

The X factor should be the scrum, as the South Africans have been dominant in that department the entire tournament, being decent even in that 0-57 loss to New Zealand. On the other hand, Australia has been a shambles in the scrum. The Australian scrum was obliterated by the Boks a few weeks ago in Perth, and was overwhelmed in all Rugby Championship matches so far. Plus, the Australian scrum in this match will feature two guys who have never started a test match, so that can`t be good news against the powerful Boks.

Home court advantage will also be key for the Boks, Australia hasn`t won in South Africa since 2011 and will also have to deal with the 1.400 meters elevation in Bloemfontein, something they are not used to (the previous H2H clash in Perth was played at 30 meters above sea level). The Australians couldn`t even win in South Africa last year, when the Springboks were at their all time lowest level (10-18).

Look for South Africa to come out with a lot of intensity after the historic loss they suffered two weeks ago, look for them to boss the scrum and milk penalties from it, putting points on the board. The handicap line is pretty cleverly set at 7.5 points by the bookies, and even though it`s currently moving towards 6.5, I think the best bet is to back the straight South Africa win. Odds around 1.40 are solid and relatively safe, so no need to get greedy.

My tip is South Africa to win with max stakes. Prediction: South Africa – Australia 29 – 21.

Pick: South Africa
Odds: 1.44
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4.40
Event date: 30 September