S. Africa – New Zealand

South Africa and New Zealand will square off in 2015 the Rugby World Cup semifinals, a mouthwatering clash between the two rugby power horses – a meeting that was anticipated even before the tournament began.

South Africa’s journey to the semis has not been as glamorous as some might have expected. They lost to Japan and needed a late try in the quarters against Wales, but they did the job and in the other three matches (Samoa, Scotland, USA) they were excellent, including booking the biggest win of the tournament against USA (64-0). The Springboks showed they can complete the task even when things are not going their way and I was more impressed than I was disappointed with the way they fought back late on against Wales, despite missing so many opportunities up to that point – which could have demolished the morale of any team, but they kept on pushing. It was a brilliant wing try to decide it.

After not impressing at all in the RWC 2015 group stages, with some experts suggesting that New Zealand is not in form, the All Blacks put on one of the most dominant and flawless performances the sport has ever seen in the quarters against France. The 62-13 win doesn`t even tell the whole story, as New Zealand could have put 80 past the French. The level of rugby was breathtaking, with incredible offloads and passes and a game played at an incredible pace. However, it has to be said that this was one of the worst French teams in the last decade and, more so, they clearly capitulated in the last 30 minutes or so, facilitating that marvelous All Blacks display.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will use everything they got best at the moment in the 15 man starting lineups.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Fourie du Preez (c), 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody.

There have been three meetings between the two sides since 2014 onwards, with New Zealand winning twice and South Africa ones. New Zealand couldn`t win any of those two by more than seven points, including in this year’s Rugby Championship (27-20), when South Africa pretty much forfeited, playing in a way that would best prepare them for the World Cup instead of aiming to win at all costs.

Listen, I fully expect New Zealand to come out strong again and play a great game, but what they showed against France can not be repeated – especially with the Springboks not being France. The All Blacks had all players hit top form in that quarterfinal and some of them are due to play at a slightly lower level today.

The fact that New Zealand simply demolished France, along with the fact that South Africa struggled against Wales (which is no shame at all), has determined bookies and punters to expect a massive NZ win today, but that just won`t happen. No match is similar to the other, it only gives us the opportunity to get higher odds and a higher handicap on the underdog.

In truth, it`s not that easy to separate these two teams. Indeed, New Zealand has a small edge on the wings and in the kicking game, but South Africa should be able to compete, if not dominate, the scrum and the set piece. They can also hurt New Zealand with individual carries by the back row guys, gaining meters and forcing penalties. The Springboks were so competitive recently against New Zealand, hurting them in all kinds of ways and I fully expect the same to happen today. Brian Habana should be able to contain Julian Savea, who was the main reason for that whitewash of France. The veteran superstar wing said he is ready for Savea, also adding that he is very motivated for a win due to the situation at home, where protest have risen country – wide.

he pressure is all on New Zealand, everybody expects them to cruise to the final, so that can always have a boomerang effect. The Springboks will never capitulate the way France did, they have the weapons to hurt New Zealand and should stay within the generous handicap set by the bookies – if not even win the match. I expect a tight clash, decided by a few points – not sure it will be in New Zealand’s favor. My tip is South Africa to cover the +8,5 points handicap. Prediction: South Africa – New Zealand 22 – 23.

Pick: South Africa +8,5
Odds: 2.00 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 24 October