South Africa – Samoa

The Springboks will look for both points and redemption after being shocked by Japan in the first match, while Samoa will try to add to South Africa’s misery – but the Pacific side wasn`t too impressive either in their first round win over the USA.

The Springboks have an excellent side and I`m still seeing them in with a great chance to win this Rugby World Cup, but their performance in the first match was nothing short of abysmal. Credit to Japan for the 34-32 win, but South Africa was dirt poor. They obviously treated the game unprofessionally, as it could be seen from their gameplan. Despite Japan keeping it close and troubling them, the Springboks insisted with the same forward based play, thinking that sheer quality will get them trough comfortably. South Africa will surely not make the same mistake twice.

Samoa is the second best Pacific side after Fiji right now and there were high expectations from them in this RWC. However, the Islanders struggled against one of the worst sides in the tournament, USA, barely winning by 9 points (25-16) and failing to claim a bonus point – scoring only two tries. Surely they will need a much better performance against a hurt animal like South Africa – whom they never beat and whom they lost to by 33 points in the last meeting, back in 2013.

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Team news & lineups:

South Africa will make 8 changes to the starting lineup that lost against Japan, while Samoa will only make 4.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Ken Pisi, 13 Paul Perez, 12 Rey Lee-Lo, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Mike Stanley, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Ofisa Treviranus (c), 7 Jack Lam, 6 TJ Ioane, 5 Joe Tekori, 4 Teofilo Paulo, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Motu Matu’u, 1 Zak Taulafo

The Springboks remain arguably the second best team in the tournament – one loss has not transformed them into mugs, just like it didn`t suddenly make Japan contenders. Look for South Africa to be fully focused and determined in this match, start strong and dominate Samoa over the 80 minutes. The Pacific side didn`t show much in the first game and I expect them to be dominated both in the forward department and on the wings. The Springboks will surely mix it up after being so one dimensional against Japan.

My tip is South Africa to win and cover the 19,5 point handicap. The Springboks truly have a brilliant team, while Samoa still has some way to go before competing against the best. The bookies are underestimating South Africa with this handicap and these odds. Prediction: South Africa – Samoa 39 – 11.

Pick: South Africa -19,5
Odds: 2.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 26 September