Spain – Chile

It`s do or die for Spain tonight against Chile, the Furia Roja needs a win in order to advance to the knockout stage. A draw could also suit Spain in certain circumstances, but the South Americans would be the favorites to advance if the game will end up tied.

I expected Spain to struggle to reach the semifinals in this tournament, I expected Netherlands to get a draw against the World Champions, but I never expected Spain to suffer such a humiliating 5-1 defeat in the first match. After a decent first half, Spain played abysmal on all ends, defensively and offensively, and could have lost by an even bigger margin. Their players have aged and are no longer so hungry for performances, but even in these circumstances Spain remains a solid side in football. They have the quality and the coaching to beat a side like Chile, not they also have the proper motivation to do it.

Chile was fancied to challenge Spain and Netherlands in this group and right now are in an even better position than expected, but it has to be said the the 3-1 win against Australia was by no means impressive. Chile played poor for most of the match, allowing Australia to take over and create chances, and if it wasn`t for that first 15 minutes when they gained a 2-0 advantage, I don`t know if Chile would have won that game. The South Americans have a couple of world class players (Sanchez, Vidal), but they also have a lot of weak spots, their center back pairing is shaky, the midfield can`t quite produce balls and they have a left back with a wooden right leg, as he would apparently go around a train only to avoid using it.

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Team news & lineups

There were question marks over who Del Bosque will field in goal today, with Casillas in danger of losing his spot, but after David De Gea’s injury in training the Real Madrid keeper will most likely start. Otherwise, no squad problems for either side.

Spain: Casillas – Azpilicueta, Pique, Ramos, Alba – Busquets, Alonso, Xavi – Silva, Torres, Iniesta

Chile: Bravo – Isla, Mena, Jara, Medel – Aranguiz, Diaz, Vidal, Vargas – Sanchez, Valdivia

I fancy Spain to win this, they will be eager to bounce back and badly need the three points. The Spaniards are still a top team, while Chile did not impress at all against Australia. However, the odds for a Spain win have dropped so much that there is basically negative value on them, there`s no way I would touch Spain at 1.50. A much better bet is the under in my opinion, I reckon it has roughly the same chances to be a winner as a bet on Spain and the odds are crazy good – no doubt they are heavily influenced by the goal scoring record in this World Cup. In the last two days we started seeing less and less goals in the World Cup and I expect the trend to continue. This is a key match, so nobody will take any risks. Spain will play their usual passing game, no hurry, while Chile will be content to sit back and wait. Del Bosque`s side will also be very focused defensively after receiving 5 goals from Netherlands, that`s for sure, the Spanish manager surely worked a lot with the back line in last week’s training. I expect a cautious approach from both sides and not too many goal scoring chances. If Spain goes in front by one, I can see them protecting that key advantage. My tip is under 2,5 goals. Prediction: Spain – Chile 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.38 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.04
Event date: 18 June