Sporting – FCSB

Sporting Lisbon will host FC FCSB in the first leg of the Champions League playoffs, this being the most unbalanced match of the day in UCL according to the bookies.

Sporting started the season with two wins in the first two rounds of the Portugese league, and will now make their season debut in the Champions League, having been directly qualified for the playoffs. The hosts will attempt to reach the UCL group stages for the second year in a row and will feel they have a great chance to do so against Romanian vice champions FC FCSB.

FCSB (former Steaua Bucharest) is on the back of a 1-1 home draw against Astra, yet another match in which today`s visitors failed to impress, and the team is not looking good at all under new coach Dica (brought in as a puppet manager). FCSB has 4 wins and 4 draws in all competitions so far this season and played just one good match so far – but that was also the most important one, as they won 4-1 away from home against Plzen in the previous UCL qualifying round, knocking out the Czech side 5-2 on aggregate. On the bright side, FCSB is still undefeated.

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Team news & lineups:

Sporting will miss two of their best players, Carvalho and Coentrao. FCSB has even bigger problems, as they miss key players Budescu, Teixeira and Balasa. What`s more, new signings Benzar and Nedelcu are ineligible for this tie.

Sporting: Rui Patricio – Piccini, Coates, Mathieu, J. Silva – Battaglia, A. Silva – Martins, Fernandes, Acuna – Dost

FC FCSB: Nita – Enache, Larie, Momcilovici, Morais – Popescu, Pintilii – Man, Tanase, Golofca – Alibec

Budescu, Teixeira and Balasa will be huge absences for the visitors. The first two have been arguably FCSB’s best players in the start of the season, while Balasa was one of only two eligible center backs for this tie. FCSB will have to play with a center back pairing of Larie (3rd choice CB) and Momcilovic (improvisation from LB), which is not good news for them against an offensively potent team like Sporting.

On the other hand, the absence of Carvalho has the potential to affect Sporting’s performance, but in the end he is just one player.

The hosts have looked consistent in this start of the season, even though they needed a late goal to secure a win last round against Setubal. Sporting seems stronger than last year, having spent in region of 25M Euros on transfers (+ the free signings of Mathieu, Coentrao or Doumbia), while losing only one of their top players (Semedo to Villarreal).

Look for Sporting to impose their superior quality and dominate FCSB in this clash. Considering the offensive strength of the hosts and FCSB’s improvised defense, you would expect Sporting to be able to create a fair number of chances here and cover the handicap. FCSB kept a single clean sheet in 8 matches this season, most of them against very poor opposition. Also, missing 2 of their 3 best players (Budescu & Teixeira) will hinder FCSB’s capabilities to create danger on counterattacks.

My tip is Sporting Lisbon to cover the 1,25 asian handicap. I reckon the bet makes a lot of sense (odds are dropping) and a 8 unit 9 unit investment is reasonable considering we get half of our stakes back if Sporting only wins by 1 goal. Prediction: Sporting Lisbon – FCSB 3-0.

Pick: Sporting (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.85
Event date: 15 August