Betdistrict.com
Interesting quarterfinal betting wise here at the US Open, with Stan Wawrinka taking on Kei Nishikori after both had tough matches in the previous round. We should see some great tennis here.
Wawrinka was slightly lucky to escape with a 4 set win over Robredo, as the Spaniard had 2 consecutive chances to take a 2-1 set lead in their 4th round clash. Stan had his best season to date in 2014 but he is still very inconsistent and did not really produce his best level of tennis since the Monte Carlo Masters, except some stretches in his quarterfinal run at Wimbledon. Here at US Open Stan was again shaky, alternating moments of great tennis with unforced errors. No doubt, he`s in good form right now but he`s still not that Australian Open Wawrinka and is looking vulnerable when faced with an opponent who can run and keep the ball in play.
 |
Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
I did not trust Nishikori to win over Raonic but boy was I proved wrong by the Japanese: Kei did brilliantly to come back from a 2-1 set deficit and totally dominated Raonic in the last 2 sets, the last 3 actually though he lost the 3rd in a tiebreak. Kei seems fit and is producing some great shots right now, a counter-punching style which should work very well against an error-prone Wawrinka, especially considering that Nishikori is lighting fast, will force Stan to hit another shot and is producing few errors himself. One argument against Nishi is that he might be fatigued, but I watched him in Miami earlier this year beating Federer after an absolute thriller against Ferrer. Even though Miami was played 2 out of 3 sets, it`s an indication that Kei has the fitness to compete in 2 consecutive tough matches.
Wawrinka leads the H2H 2-0 (1-0 on hard), two easy wins in 2012 but things were different back than and a matchup analysis does not suggest Stan has an advantage in playing styles.
The swiss is the favorite for a good reason here, he is the better tennis overall player, has the H2H advantage and is arguably more rested. However, the odds on him are just too low. My last 5 US Open analyses / tips ended up in horror so I would need a win here, but even so I am not afraid to bet on the underdog. Kei is playing at the same level as Wawrinka or arguably even better, so the odds on him are not justified. It should be a close encounter and with a little bit of luck I trust Kei will be able to reach his first ever Grand Slam semifinal. Low-medium stakes though. My tip is Nishikori to win, no handicaps as this can also go the wrong way in certain circumstances – for this reason I’m picking the higher odds over the handicap. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Kei Nishikori 6-3 6-7 4-6 7-6 3-6.
Pick: Nishikori
Odds: 2.57 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 7.85
Event date: 3 September
