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Stan Wawrinka takes on Milos Raonic in a top class semifinal showdown on the indoor hard at Rotterdam.
The Swiss started the year in dominant fashion, winning Chennai and reaching the Australian Open semifinals (lost in 5 sets to Djokovic), but struggled early on here in Rotterdam. Stan could not quite keep his composure and made a fair number of unforced errors, losing sets to Huta Galung and Garcia Lopez. However, after losing the first set to an inspired Garcia Lopez, Wawrinka has been on a roll – he demolished the spaniard to win 2-1 and went on to nullify a red hot Gilles Muller in 2 sets, with Gilles Muller previously beating Goffin and Dimitrov. Real solid tennis from Wawrinka in the last 4 sets he played.
Raonic has been shaky to say the least in this tournament, he struggled more or less in all the three matches he played against 2nd tier opponents (Kuznetsov, Bolelli, Stakhovsky) and looked to be on track for elimination last round against Stakhovsky. He pulled it off in the end but lost serve two times against a player who is not exactly a good returner. Errors on the forehand, inconsistent movement, Raonic clearly needs to step it up if he is to reach the Rotterdam final.
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Wawrinka leads the Head 2 Head 3-0 (2-0 on hard). He had a tough 3 set win over Milos in 2012 when I clearly remember Raonic being a 1.50 odds favorite and than easily won the next two in minimum sets. My judgement, seeing all Head 2 Head matches live, is that Stan holds a matchup advantage over Raonic, being able to move him around, keep serve and put pressure on the return a couple of games per set.
Raonic was well known for not being able to challenge top opponents, even in his best form, until a win over Federer last year in Paris. However, it remained the only big win for Milos and after seeing Djokovic rip him to shreds in the Australian Open quarterfinals it seems quite clear that Raonic will always struggle against the top players. He can beat Wawrinka in certain circumstances, though he wasn`t able to do it even in the most favorable circumstance in 2012, but today is not one of those circumstances – not with Stan playing so well right now. Look for the Swiss to put pressure on Raonic’s serve, which has been clearly under-par so far in this tournament. The movement will also be a key factor, as the ball moves so fast on indoor hard – so Wawrinka will be able to get the initiative early on in rallies against the slow footed Raonic.
Raonic could not fins hid rhythm this week in Rotterdam while Wawrinka has clearly improved and playing his best tennis after some early struggles. Stan is at the top of his game, he improved his level as the tournament passed and he should really edge this against Milos. My tip is Wawrinka to win and the odds are going down big time on this bet. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Milos Raonic 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Wawrinka
Odds: 1.72 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.2
Event date: 14 February
