Wawrinka – Nadal

Rafael Nadal will attempt to win his 10th Roland Garros title, but standing between him and this amazing feat is maybe the only player who can beat him on clay at this moment.

Nadal managed to turn back the clock this year, particularly on his beloved clay. After a first part of the season in which he played great, but was second best to Federer, Nadal exploded on clay to remind us of his dominance 5-10 years ago. Rafa won Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid in dominant fashion, his only loss coming in the Rome semifinals against Thiem. Rafa avenged that loss here in Paris, destroying Thiem in the semifinals for his 6th consecutive straight sets win.

Wawrinka has won his last 10 matches, including a remarkable win over Murray here in the Roland Garros semifinals. The Brit played some inspired tennis in that match and seemed the favorite to win in the 4th set, leading 2-1 and Wawrinka not playing very well. Stan however stayed in the match, won a 4th set tiebreak and cruised in the 5th to win 6-7 6-3 5-7 7-6 6-1. Stan had a great level at the beginning and at the end of the match, but had down moments in the middle of it. He will need to be more consistent to challenge Nadal.

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Nadal leads the H2H 15-3, so he seems to have a clear matchup advantage against Stan. However, things have changed a bit lately. All of Wawrinka’s 3 wins came in the last 6 matches – one was on clay and one was in a Grand Slam final (2014 Australian Open).

Rafa has played truly great this week and not only did he win all his matches in straight – he won all sets by 6-4 or less. Even the red hot Thiem couldn`t touch him in the semifinals.

There is also the question about Wawrinka’s fitness, as he played a lot of tennis lately and had a difficult semifinal with Murray. Playing Nadal will be a grind, so it will be a physical challenge. Nevertheless, Stan showed amazing ability to regenerate in the past, and always found an extra gear in Grand Slam finals.

Nadal is obviously a big favorite in this final and chances are he will win it. However, Wawrinka might have a better chance than the bookies suggest. He played great himself, only losing 2 sets against Murray. He played his absolute best tennis for long stretches in the quarters and semis.

If Stan brings his A game, painting the lines with authority and no conscience, he can beat Nadal, even here in Paris. Rafa is playing amazing, but he is not quite the same player he was 5-6 years ago, when he was truly unbeatable on this surface. The distance he can cover is not as long, giving an aggressive hitter chances.

For Wawrinka to win this match he needs to play perfect tennis for the entire final – as opposed to doing it just 2-3 sets like he did against Murray. It`s unknown if he can do it, but history suggests he can. He won 3 Grand Slams in 3 finals and he always plays out of his mind once he reaches this stage.

I reckon Wawrinka has a 25-30% chance here, so odds represent value. I am going with the straight win, hoping for a “Stanimal” showing, rather than getting involved with handicaps. If Stan is at his absolute best he can win, but if he isn`t, Nadal can blow him out. My tip is Wawrinka to win, low stakes on the bet.

Pick: Wawrinka
Odds: 5.75 @ 1xBet
Stake: 2
Possible profit: 9.50
Event date: 11 June