Wawrinka – Federer

All Swiss semifinal at the 2015 US Open, with Stan Wawrinka taking on Roger Federer in what many anticipate to be a mouthwatering night match.

Despite doing a very solid job in this year’s US Open, Wawrinka did not particularly impress. The opponents in the first three rounds posed zero threat, he had some problems in the 4th round against Young, losing a set and finally played his most solid match of the tournament against Anderson in the quarters, winning 6-4 6-4 6-0 – however Big Kevin was far from his best, apparently still recovering after his thriller win against Murray.

I reckon this is the first time in the last 3 years when one can truly say that Federer is back at his 2005-2008 level. The performance from Federer in the last month, including Cincinnati (won over Djokovic in the final), was nothing short of superb and generated intense media exposure. The Swiss was fantastic in this tournament, not losing a single set and most recently demolishing Gasquet 6-3 6-3 6-1 in a vintage performance in the quarters. Really the only question about Roger right now is if he can beat Djokovic in 3 out of 5 sets – otherwise no one can disagree with the fact that he is playing (by far) the best tennis in this tournament.

Bet on Wawrinka vs Federer and watch US Open live streaming at Bet365.com now!

Roger leads the Head 2 Head over Wawrinka 16-3, but the recent emergence of Stan makes this Head 2 Head way overrated. Roger still knows how to play Stanimal, but Wawrinka on his day has the weapons to get past Roger – most recently it was a dominating 3 set win by Waw at Roland Garros. It has to be said though that Fedex never lost on hard courts to Stan (11-0).

Stan has really been like a postman in this US Open, doing the job without drawing too many eyes and one could think that he is set to explode exactly at the right time, like in Roland Garros. However, his tennis so far looks far more similar to Wimbledon, when he showed the same level and eventually lost to Gasquet in the quarters – there are a few cracks there and he hasn`t really been tested so far. Even with Stan at his top level, Federer is just too strong right now. What Stan did to Federer at Roland Garros doesn`t seem likely to happen now, because Roger is doing exactly what Stan did in that tournament, even at a higher level. There`s really not much you can say about the Swiss number 1, he is breathtaking and it would take a defensive baseliner in the best form to beat him by exhaustion more than anything else. Wawrinka is not that type of player.

All of Federer’s wins against Wawrinka in Grand Slams (4) came in less than 5 sets and I expect a similar outcome today. Roger in three is my call, but my tip is on a safer side – Federer to win with a 1,5 set handicap. If this match goes to 5, my analysis would have already been proven wrong. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Roger Federer 3-6 6-7 5-7.

Watch Wawrinka vs. Federer – US Open live streaming available for players at Bet365.

Pick: Federer -1,5 sets handicap
Odds: 1.65 @ 10Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.85
Event date: 11 September