Wawrinka – Federer

Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer will square off in an all – Swiss final at Indian Wells.

Wawrinka hasn`t quite been at his best in this tournament and it has to be said that he was a bit lucky to reach the final. After solid straight set wins against Lorenzi and Kohlschreiber, Wawrinka needed third set tiebreaks to get past both Nishioka and Thiem – before making light work of Carreno Busta in an easy semifinal.

Federer is yet to lose a set in this tournament and he played consistently at a very high level throughout the last 10 days. Along the way, Fedex demolished Nadal in the 4th round and also defeated Jack Sock 6-1 7-6 in the semifinals. Sock was in the form of his life, fresh of an impressive win against Nishikori, but could not find answers to the excellent play of Federer.

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Federer leads the H2H against Wawrinka 19-3 (14-0 on hard!) and he won the last meeting in 5 sets at the Australian Open this year. Wawrinka’s 3 wins over Federer all came on clay.

Wawrinka could not have reached the final without playing good tennis, he`s obviously in good form, but still he has been pretty far away from his best level. We know Stan can turn up the gas in the latter stages of the tournament, but if he did not do it until the final, it`s unlikely he will be able to suddenly get in “god mode” in the last match. And even that might not be enough against this version of Federer.

Roger is playing arguably even better than in the Australian Open and he owns the matchup against Stan, which is a crucial factor coming into this match.

Wawrinka never beat Federer on hard in 14 matches, all his 3 wins coming on clay. I find it highly unlikely that Stan can get his first hard court win over his mentor in this tournament, when Federer is playing extremely well and consistent, while Wawrinka is not quite at his best. While it`s true that the surface is a bit slower at Indian Wells, that clearly did not bother Roger.

My tip is Federer to win and even odds of 1.45 seem pretty good to me. A pretty simple bet in my eyes and I will invest high stakes – a 9 unit investments looks reasonable. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Roger Federer 4-6 5-7.

Pick: Federer
Odds: 1.45 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.05
Event date: 19 March