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Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych square off in what could already be a deciding match for qualification in the ATP London World Tour finals. With Djokovic in the group, these two and Marin Cilic will likely fight for the second place, so this meeting is absolutely crucial even if it`s just the group opener.
Wawrinka has been way off his usual pace lately, way off! Stan had a breakthrough year, winning the Australian Open, but after reaching the quarters at the US Open he has been absolutely horrible, losing 4 out of 6 matches (!!!) and we`re talking about defeats to guys like Ito and Kukushkin. He did look a bit better two weeks ago in Paris, beating Thiem and losing to Anderson in a third set tiebreak, but still a lot of unforced errors and well behind the level required to compete at these ATP World Tour finals. On the bright side, Stan is a guy that can get back to form really quickly, so he can surely beat the top guys even if his form does not recommend him to do it.
Bet on Stan Wawrinka vs. Tomas Berdych with the best World Tour finals odds at Betsson.
Berdych had a rather poor season, especially in the summer and early autumn. He looked slower than usual and especially having less power – his forehand was consistently nullified by opponents and he seemed unable to produce runs deep into tournaments. However, in contrast to Wawrinka, he improved a lot after the US Open. In five tournaments, Tomas won in Stokholm, reached the final in Beijing and the semifinals two weeks ago at the Paris Masters. He beat guys like Lopez (twice), Isner and Dimitrov.
Wawrinka leads the H2H 9-5 and won the last 4 meetings, including the only one this year at the Australian Open. That would seem like a matchup advantage for Stan, but I don-t think it is the case. It also has to be said that Stan leads the H2H just 6-5 on hard/carpet.
Listen, Stan can raise his level at this tournament and play much better than he did recently, but how much can he really improve? It`s also very possible that he won’t improve at all, so in these circumstances you really can’t fancy a tip on him, it would be just a shot in the dark and the odds are not great either. I have to pick Berdych here, he has been really solid recently and is the better player at the moment, playing better tennis. Additionally, he has the experience of playing at the ATP World Tour finals, something Wawrinka does not have – and experience is always so underrated! My tip will be Berdych to win, expect him to continue his consistent tennis and profit from Stan’s unforced errors. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Tomas Berdych 6-7 6-4 3-6.
Pick: Berdych
Odds: 1.81 @ Betsson
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 10 November
