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Stan Wawrinka will square off against the surprising Japanese Yoshihito Nishioka in the Indian Wells fourth round. This will be the first meeting between the two players.
Wawrinka wasn`t particularly impressive so far in this tournament, but even so he reached this stage without any problems. Stan defeated Lorenzi and Kohlschreiber in straight sets – and winning those two matches easily without playing his best might actually be a very good sign for the Swiss. That`s not to say Stan played poorly, that is obviously not the case and he had a good level of play so far at Indian Wells.
The 70th ranked Nishioka had a very interesting road up until this point. He lost in the qualifiers to Ymer, but got into the main draw as a lucky loser. He then defeated the same Ymer in the first round, got past Karlovic in the second and produced one of the biggest comeback upsets in tennis history by beating Berdych in the 3rd round. Nishioka was down 1-6 2-5 and 15-30 before pulling off a monumental comeback to win 1-6 7-6 6-4.
Bet on Wawrinka v Nishioka and claim your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet now!Nishioka did an amazing job to get this far and he definitely played some good tennis in the last week, even if he entered the draw as a lucky loser. The Japanese was great in the second part of the match against Berdych, running around and putting balls back in play, not missing much. But there`s no doubt that Berdych threw that match away, as he suddenly stopped playing at 6-1 5-2, his serve disappeared and he was a shell of himself in the third set.
Nishioka put in a huge effort against Berdych, running left to right for 2 hours and 20 minutes, defending like crazy against Berdych’s powerful shots. Nishioka already seemed to have some problems early in the tournament, suffering from cramps and he`s not used to playing so many matches in a row at this level.
Yoshihito is a fit, speedy guy, but fatigue could very well get the best of him in this match, especially as the aggressive Wawrinka will run him around the entire length of the court.
There`s also the fact of sheer power, Nishioka is one of the lightest players on tour, he has a poor serve and relatively weak groundstrokes. He was blown off the court by Berdych as long as Tomas played error – free and Wawrinka has the power to do the same.
Stan of course can be inconsistent and some might feel that backing him to cover a handicap at relatively low odds is not a good idea. However, that`s mostly valid for the early rounds. Stan now has matches under his belt and is in rhythm, he`s always consistent once the tournament advances.
I think Nishioka’s potential physical state, his hangover after the Berdych win and the difference in power (nevermind the huge quality gap) make an upset unlikely.
I reckon Wawrinka will make light work of the Japanese, so my tip will be Wawrinka to cover a 4 game handicap, which has slightly better odds than the set handicap. A stake of 8 units seems reasonable on this bet. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Yoshihito Nishioka 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Wawrinka -4
Odds: 1.66 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.28
Event date: 15 March
