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Standard Liege vs. Sporting Lokeren, 17 April, in the Belgium Jupiler Pro League playoffs.
Standard has 1 win, 1 loss and 1 draw in the playoffs – the draw last round at Genk (2-2) and prior to that they lost 2-0 at Zulte Waregem, so the hosts are not in the best form at the moment. Overall this means Standard has 38 points, tied for the first place, but with a game in hand. The win today would give Standard a fantastic boost for the title race especially after Zulte and Anderlecht made a draw on Tuesday. Team news for Standard are pretty good, no big issues.
Lokeren did very well to reach the playoffs but now they really don’t have much else to do. They will try to finigh 5th instead of 6th but can’t do any beter. Lokeren has 27 points and in the playoffs achieved only 1 point against the other n0n-factor team, Genk. Last weekend they lost 1-2 at home to Anderlecht. Like Standard, Lokeren also has good team news and are almost fully healthy.
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Standard has odds of about 1.45 which I think are rather low even if Lokeren is one level below. The home team was upset a lot of time this season, especially in the Europa League but also in Belgium, last time just a few days ago at Genk, so I will not go on Standard to win. What I think is a more viable bet is the over 2,5 – better odds and roughly the same chances to be a winner like the “1” option. Standard has a very good offense and scored an average of 2 goals per game in the regular season, while Lokeren has a goal difference of 3-8 in three matches in the playoffs. I reckon Standard will come out strong considering the massive importance of this game and the chance they have to gain a big option for the title. Lokeren without pressure could play more freely and be more effective in front of goal – for sure they will have chances on counter ratacks, the key is to take them.
Overall the over 2,5 goals looks like the best betting option here for me – the two teams really don’t look like playing an underish game at the moment between eachother – and I will be happy to invest 9 units for a very decent return of investment. In the direct meeting hosted by Standard in the regular season it was 2-1 for the hosts (at Lokeren it was 1-0 for Standard). Correct score prediction: Standard Liege – KSK Lokeren 2-1, maybe 2-2..
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.81 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.29
Event date: 17 April
