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Steaua and ACS Poli Timisoara will square off at the National Arena in Bucharest, with the match counting for the quarterfinals of the Romanian League Cup.
Steaua had all sorts of problems this year, they lost some players and have a rookie coach, things which determined a very poor start of the season both internally and in Europe. However, Steaua still has the best roster in the country and they are slowly regaining some form. The hosts are not playing great, but are improving and have won 4 games on the spin in all competitions. The last time they failed to win was against today’s opponents, a 0-1 away defeat in Liga 1.
Relegation battlers ACS Poli are newcomers in the Romanian Liga 1. They are one of the few teams with a decent financial situation, being supported from public money. In the start of the season the visitors were dreadful, they improved since changing the manager and are currently undefeated in the last 7 matches. Nevertheless, the level of play is poor and it`s worth noting that aside form the Steaua win, ACS Poli met only fellow relegation candidates. They drew 3 of the last 4 games (all competitions), only beating a League 2 side in the Cup.
Team news: Steaua will probably rest 2-3 players that have been involved with the Romanian national team in the past week, but otherwise they are expected to field a strong side. ACS Poli will probably send their best 11 on the pitch.
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Even if the hosts decide to rest a couple of key players, Steaua should be too strong for Timisioara here. The hosts are by far the better team, they are motivated to do well in the League Cup and have been in good form lately. Steaua will also be wary of the threat Timisoara poses after losing to them recently, so they will take the opponents seriously. The offensively – challenged visitors are unlikely to find the net, while Steaua should be able to score at least a couple.
I can tell you that the referee tonight is a big Steaua fan. He’s also known for favoring Steaua in the past, which is not a surprise knowing this information. Of course it doesn`t mean that he will help the hosts or that it will be a fixed match, but it`s a piece of info worth taking into account. Hopefully he won`t resist giving a push from behind to his favorite team.
My tip is Steaua Bucharest to win and cover the -1 asian handicap. The odds are high, if this match was played in the league Steaua would probably have 1.20 – 1.25 to win – so I am satisfied with this bet, which seems to hold very low risk as far as I`m concerned. The biggest danger is that Poli has a manager that has always frustrated Steaua in the last three years with poor teams, Florin Marin – but that can not last forever. I feel that even a weak game for Steaua should get them at least a 1-0 win.
I was initially planning to bet somewhere in the 7-8 units range on this one, but due the fact that I really like the odds, I will go the extra mile and increase the investment with 1-2 units. Prediction: Steaua Bucharest – ACS Poli Timisoara 2-0.
Pick: Steaua Buc (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.29
Event date: 15 October
