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Interesting game here in group E of the Champions League. Both teams lost in the opening round, Steaua 0-3 at Schalke, Chelsea 1-2 at home against Basel.
Steaua is the best team in Romania by a pretty big margin. After young coach Reghencampf took over last year, the team immediately started showing quality. They won the league without any trouble and they reached the Europa League R16 last season, knocking out Ajax via a penalty shootout. They were sent home by today`s opponents, Chelsea, but the romanians managed to win in Bucharest 1-0. Nevertheless, the fact is that Steaua is weaker than last season, losing their main goalscoring threat (Rusescu to Sevilla) and their only top class player (center back Chiriches to Tottenham) without bringing in decent replacements. The team has big problems up front with the best striker being Piovaccari, a fringe Sampdoria player signed on loan. While the hosts are still undefeated in the weak Romanian League, they have been shaky to say the least in Champions League. They knocked out Legia Warzaw in the playoffs thanks to away goals after two draws and they lost the first group game against Schalke 3-0. The romanians are not at Champions League level and it comes as little surprises that they are winless in the last 18 group stage games.
Chelsea comes in Bucharest on the back of a solid performance against Tottenham, a 1-1 draw in an away game they arguably deserved to win. In Champions League, the visitors lost the first match the group against Basel, 1-2, and that is crucial info for today. Chelsea simply can’t afford to leave anymore points on the table in Romania. Mourinho took over in the summer and the team still struggles to adapt to his game, Chelsea’s form being rather poor so far this campaign for their standards. However, this should not make a difference against weaker opposition.
Team news & lineups
Chelsea will field a very strong first eleven, something close to the best one available. They do not have too many absentees, the only fresh news being van Ginkel’s knee injury. Steaua misses 3 of its best 4 players from last year (Rusescu and Chiriches – sold and Chipciu – injured). Key center midfielder Pintilii is doubtful and winger Tanase is not fit to play the whole game (though he should start).
Steaua: Tatarusanu – Georgievski, Szukala, Gardos, Latovlevici – Filip, Bourceanu – Tanase, Stanciu, Popa – Piovaccari
Chelsea: Cech – Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Cole – Ramires, Mikel – Lampard, Mata, Hazard Oscar – Eto’o (Torres)
I don’t think Steaua’s home win against Chelsea last season is too relevant here. Steaua was stronger, Chelsea was in abysmal form, players and fans were at war with Rafa Benitez, and their focus at the time was the league and the FA Cup. Chelsea sent a pretty strong squad to Bucharest bach then, but some starters missed the game. Even so, the romanians had no goal scoring chances and won from a penalty kick, losing the return leg 3-1. Today, things are totally different with Chelsea needing the three points badly in a competition they value highly.
It’s hard to see Chelsea stumbling two times in a row against two second tier teams. After the shocking loss against Basel (who is stronger than Steaua), Mourinho knows this game has to be won at any cost. Huge quality and experience advantage + motivation should be enough for the visitors to get the win they need. Mata will start, look for him to try and prove his worth and contribute a lot on the offensive end, just like he did against Tottenham. Expect Chelsea to go ahead in the first half and play it safe until the end, winning 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 without any kind of stress. Steaua has few goalscoring options, so The Blues should be able to keep a clean sheet. The odds are brilliant and I`ll take them gladly with maximum stakes.
Pick: Chelsea
Odds: 1.82 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.20
Event date: 1 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 3 for 4 in tips on Steaua`s games this season
- Rostick won the last three 10 units picks
Hazard isn’t playing today.
Yes, this is true. I apologize for this misinformation. It does not change my pick, but Hazard is maybe the most dangerous Chelsea weapon up front and it was a bad mistake to include him in the lineup.
I really can`t see any other result except Chelsea win. But the huge problem is there. The bookies have given 1.75 for Chelsea win knowing very well that too many people will play too high stakes on Chelsea and I never thought that bookies are fools and 100 percent sure they are not going to be bankrupt today. Another problem is that everybody is talking about loss from Basel and they think that Chelsea can`t lose any points in Bucharest. So with all respect to you I don`t think that Chelsea deserves full stakes when the professional bookies estimated Chelsea`s chances 1.75 .
Interesting opinion and I really like your comment, it’s intriguing and it brings valid questions/arguments. But I do think you are rating the bookies too highly. They are just a bunch of guys working sports, they are not unbeatable, and they are prone to mistakes. They are not more professional than a solid punter. I was a bookie, I know what I`m saying. In the end it all comes down to the money wagered, and you can see Chelsea`s odds slightly decreasing.
You can be sure that a lot of money were wagered on Steaua too, in Romania for example I know a lot of guys who are sure the Bucharest team will win.
I will never ever back down from a bet for which I have all the info just because the odds look suspicious. As long as you are informed, you shouldn`t worry about this. True, I made a mistake here with Hazard, but it`s rather rare for me to do so and luckily it`s not a game-changing one.
Regarding the stake, I respect your opinion. For me it`s justified, but that doesn’t mean I can’t be wrong. Other people can have different opinions, the Chelsea win is what`s important.
All in all, I highly appreciate this kind of comments, they bring value to the preview. Good luck tonight!