Steaua – Dinamo

The second semifinal of the Romanian Cup will see Steaua take on Dinamo in the biggest derby in Romanian football. The first leg will be played at National Arena, which is more like a neutral ground, especially since the visiting team is expected to have more than 10.000 vocal fans at the game. Dinamo was equalised in the 90th minute by Steaua for a 1-1 draw on the road just a couple of weeks ago.

Steaua is the best team in Romania right now, closing in on a second consecutive title, as they are 8 points in front of the second place. Steaua also won 6 of the 7 matches they played in 2014, but had accessible opponents and is coming after a very poor performance in a 2-1 winning effort at relegation-bound Sageata Navodari. The team is undefeated in Romania this season, but at a closer look Steaua is not really such an impenetrable force, as seen in Europe when they took some heavy beatings in the Champions League, albeit the level there was of course totally different. They are drawing a lot and there are big suspicions about fixed matches, which might be well founded considering that the hosts are not the purest team out there, with the owner and the director of football being in jail right now, and the manager`s wife acting as an agent for a large number of players in Liga 1. Refereeing errors have also helped Steaua a lot this season and lesser teams are usually giving too much respect to the champions – better teams always gave Steaua a fight this season. My point here is not to bash Steaua, this is the best team in Romania, in good form, but by no means is it unbeatable and I`m not quite sure what their real strength is, but they are definitely overrated.

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Dinamo is in rebuilding mode this season after changing ownership, but the team did a decent job to climb up to the 4th spot, especially after Flavius Stoican was appointed at coach late last year. In 2014 the Red Dogs alternated good performances (including the 1-1 draw at Steaua) with bad ones, the statline being 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. The visitors are extremely solid defensively and are specialists of winning with 1-0, but are on the back of a 2-3 home defeat to Pandurii Tg. Jiu, albeit the level of play wasn`t really so bad – but not too good either.

Team news and lineups

Steaua does not have important injuries or suspensions, only Kapetanos is out but he is the 3rd choice striker. Dinamo does have some issues with reserve midfielder Catalin Munteanu and regulars Matei and Thicot, the last two having a chance to play though.

Steaua: Tatarusanu – Latovlevic, Szukala, Gardos, Varela – Pintilii, Sanmartean – Tanase, Keseru, Popa – Chipciu

Dinamo: Balgradean – Rus, Durimel, D. Grigore, Grecu – V. Lazar, Boubacar, Elton, Rotariu – Bilinski, Tucudean

Steaua is surely a better team than Dinamo and is riding a 7 match unbeaten streak against the Red Dogs, but the difference is by no means as big as the odds suggest, and this was clearly seen a couple of weeks ago, when Dinamo was unlucky not to win on the road. The hosts do have a lot of shortcomings and they don`t really have home court advantage here, so a close match is to be expected. I do think Dinamo`s defense will step up to its usual best after the 3 goals conceded last round and could frustrate Steaua. I firmly believe the visitors can come out with a result in this one. Steaua is clearly overrated at these odds, just like a couple of weeks ago, and my tip is Dinamo +1 asian handicap. Prediction: Steaua – Dinamo 1-1. You should know that I`m a Dinamo Bucharest fan, but of course my picks have always been objective, including on matches between the two teams.

Pick: Dinamo (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 27 March