Steaua – Dinamo

Steaua Bucharest will take on Dinamo Bucharest in the biggest derby rivalry of Romanian football. The teams are tied with 8 points after 4 Liga 1 rounds and after 3-4 years of Steaua dominance, it looks like finally Dinamo has a legit chance to change their fortunes, even though the hosts are still deserving favorites at about 1.65 – 1.70.

Steaua are hosts on paper, but reality is a little bit different – the match is basically played on neutral ground at National Arena (even though Steaua started to play here regularly recently) and Dinamo might have more fans, or at least noisier fans, as Steaua has separated from its “ultras” supporters due to various factors.

The home side is coming after a heartbreaking 2-4 loss at Partizan, which sent them out of the Champions League qualifiers. It was actually a decent game from Steaua, one of the best they played all season, but playing with 10 men for 40 minutes proved to be too much. Steaua has by far the worst team in the last 4 years, when they dominated the league. They lost a lot of key players and brought in an inexperienced coach in Mirel Radoi, just because he is related to their crazy owner. The hosts have been in poor form this season, playing poor football and they haven`t won a single game at home in any competitions. At times Steaua did show moments of great football, they still have arguably the top talent in Romania but short 5-10 minute spans every 2 matches can`t really help you to get solid results.

Dinamo`s 8 points in 4 rounds are actually a bit of an over achievement, as the team is still struggling with finances and is in rebuilding mode. The level of football showed by Dinamo was rather mediocre, but, however, this year the Red Dogs have an excellent coach in Mircea Rednic – an established manager who is making the difference and managed to put a good side together, especially on the defensive end. Dinamo is on the back of a somewhat lucky 2-1 home win over ACS Poli Timisoara and there is real excitement around the club that a good result can finally be obtained against the eternal rivals.

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Team news & lineups:

Key midfielder Stanciu is out for Steaua, while captain Varela is questionable. Dinamo might miss Filip and Gavrila are questionable, but nothing is certain. Fringe defender Starokin is out.

Steaua: Cojocaru – Alcénat, Varela (Carp), Papp, Tosca – Breeveld, Muniru – Ad. Popa, Hamroun, Chipciu – Tadé

Dinamo: Černiauskas – Feussi, A. Marc, Mevlja, Fai – Vojnović, Nedelcearu – B. Gavrilă, C. Matei, V. Lazăr – Gnohéré

At a first glance this looks like an underish game, but the odds are low and somehow in the last years Steaua – Dinamo always saw 3-4 goals, even when the matches were poor and defensive. For that reason I am staying away from the under / over market.

I reckon the best bet here is on Dinamo. Steaua is a better team, but they are in poor form, they are very low on morale and have been horrible at home this season. They won`t even feel like home in this match. Dinamo is not playing great football either, but they do seem hard to beat, have better morale and could arguably be more motivated. The most important edge for Dinamo is coaching – as Mircea Rednic should be able to eat up inexperienced Radoi, who so far seems totally unprepared for his Steaua job. Coaching is always the most underrated aspect in sports, any player or team owner will tell you that, so I am counting on this advantage for Dinamo in terms of coaching to give them a deciding edge.

The facts indicate that value lies with the Red Dogs here. My tip is Dinamo +0,5 handicap. Prediction: Steaua Bucharest – Dinamo Bucharest 1-1.

Pick: Dinamo +0,5
Odds: 2.22 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.76
Event date: 9 August