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Steaua showed in the first leg that it is one class above the georgians, winning 2-0 thanks to a brace from Gabriel Iancu. Tbilisi is a decent teams and they had their chances, even missing a penalty at 0-0, but in the end the romanians proved they are better and won deservingly. What can we expect from the second leg?
Steaua was rejuvenated last year by young coach Laurentiu Reghecampf, the team played good, modern football and won the championship without any problems. They also had some decent results in Europe, reaching the last 16 of Europa League after knocking out Ajax at penalties, losing in the end to Chelsea, not before beating them 1-0 in Bucharest (1-3 away). Steaua sold its best goalscorer over the summer break (Rusescu to Sevilla), but so far the romanians are not showing any signs of weakness. They won all their 5 games this season in convincing fashion. The hosts play a well-balanced style of football, with a good defense and an even better offense. They have a good team cohesion and they rely on their speedy three-man line behind the lone striker.
Dinamo Tbilisi is the typical eastern european team who tries to do something by bringing in some over-paid, uninterested ex – western european stars (Xisco-Valencia, Ustaritz – Bilbao). The visitors are pretty good, by far the best team in Georgia, but are still not cut out for European level. Their main strength is the offensive line with Xisco and super goal-scorer Dvali (20 goals in 27 games last season). They are very vulnerable in defense, especially on the wings, where Steaua excels – we saw that in the first leg. They put Steaua under solid pressure in some moments in that game, but they were unable to take advantage and their defense finally collapsed in the last 30 minutes of the match.
The romanians will most probably rest two key defensive players today (centre-back Szukala and defensive midfielder Pintilii), to avoid bookings that will get them suspended for the next round. Gardos (Szukala`s replacemenet is well known for his man-marking errors). They will also mix it up in the attack with Piovaccari taking the place of Nikolic. The italian is way better in front of goal.
Steaua is not a team that tries to defend a result, especially against this kind of opposition. The hosts will attack and try to win the game and with their quality, they will surely put some goals behind a poor defensive team like Tbilisi, especially with the visitors having nothing to lose and leaving open spaces at the back. On the other hand I`m pretty confident Dinamo will score too. They were unlucky not to do so in the first round and with those two key missings in Steaua`s defence, and with their own attacking quality, they should manage to get a goal.
I went with an over 2,5 in the first leg, and I was wrong. I could have won, since it was a fast paced game, many goal scoring situations, also a missed penalty, but in the end the bet was lost. Today the circumstances look even better for this kind of bet and it shouldn`t miss this time. 3-0 and 3-1 look to be the most probable results, but we could be surprised with a tighter scoreline (like 2-1, 2-2) if Tbilisi gets an early goal. The georgians have to take risks, and thus the over should be covered.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.82 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.38
Event date: 6 August
