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Odds on this game were as high as 2.00 in the first days after the market opened, but now they went down to approximately 1.65. Steaua Bucharest is the slight favorite in this tie, but they will not have an easy time against Polish champions Legia Warszaw.
Steaua is a solid team, they are undefeated so far this season, but they did not have quality opponents in Romania or in the Champions League. They won all their matches except a 1-1 draw at home to Dinamo Tbilisi (which they eliminated 3-1 agg. in the last round of qualies). Previously Steaua knocked out Vardar Skopje, 5-1 agg. The romanians have a well balanced squad, good defense, good offense, and they are playing modern, fast paced football. This is mainly because of coach Rechecampf, the young manager took over last year and made wonders with this team. Steaua reached the last 16 of Europa League last season and they were impressive at home, beating Ajax 2-0 and Chelsea 1-0, but at the same time losing to Stuttgart 5-1.
As I said, the hosts are solid, they also play well at home, but when it comes to european football they still have a lot to prove. Legia is the toughest opponent they will meet since being knocked out by Chelsea in last years` Europa League.
Legia is the best team in Poland, no doubt about it. Arguably it is the only team in this country with enough quality to compete in Europe. They are currently second in the league (3w – 1d – 0l), but they will win the championship for sure. Legia was disappointing in the previous round of qualies, defeating Molde only thanks to away goals. They will be more focused today against a tougher opponent, that`s for sure. Individually, they arguably have players as good as Steaua`s, but the romanians are a little bit more cohesive and better organized. On paper, the tie is as even as you can get.
A very important fact here is that Steaua is unjustly underestimating Legia, everyone is speaking about Champions League group, that is a big mistake. While Steaua is almost celebrating the qualification, the poles are very professional about their business and are giving their opponents the deserved respect. This could work in Legia`s favor. A disadvantage for the poles will be playing away, since there will be about 50.000 Steaua fans in the stands.
Team news:
Steaua has few injury problems, only Chipciu (very important player, but long-term absent), Nikolic (striker), Costea (striker) and possibly Latovlevic (left back) will miss the game. Latovlevic should play. Steaua`s main issue is that they do not have a proper striker. Piovaccari is the only forward available for today, and he is of questionable quality, so the hosts may find it hard to score – this is a big advantage for Legia.
The visitors have pretty much a full squad available. Radovic may be left on the bench.
Steaua: Tătăruşanu – Georgievski, Szukala, Chiricheş, Latovlevici – Pintilii, Bourceanu – Ad. Popa, N. Stanciu, Cr. Tănase – Piovaccari
Legia: Kuciak – Broz, Dossa Junior, Rzezniczak, Wawrzyniak – Vrdoljak, Jodlowiec – Zyro, Radovici, Kosecki – Dvaşvili
The pitch will be very bad tonight in Romania.
The game is very evenly matched and with the insane drop on Steaua`s odds, we can get good value on the visitors. Both teams are of mediocre quality for European standards and it could go either way. The romanians are overestimated due to their results against poor opposition, so this one is all about value. Asian Handicap +1 is my choice, since Steaua could edge it, but Legia has every chance to get at least a draw out of this match. Steaua winning at 2 goals is highly unlikely against this kind of opposition, especially without a proper striker and on a disastrous pitch. Odds are fantastic, bookies were not idiots pricing Steaua at 1.90-2.00. Under 2,5 also looks a good option for this one.
Pick: Legia Warszaw (+1 A.H.)
Odds: 1.73 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.84
Event date: 21 August
