Johnson – Becker

Two solid servers in the form of Steve Johnson and Benjamin Becker will square off in the second round of the hard court tournament held in Delray Beach.

Johnson is coming after a very difficult win in the first round, as he needed a tight third set tiebreak in order to defeat John Millman. Steve is a solid, consistent Top 50 player, but he hasn’t quite been in great form this year, posting a win – loss record of 3-4, not exactly great for a player ranked 31st in the World. It remains to be seen if the dramatic Millman win will help Johnson regain his optimal level of play.

Benjamin Becker claimed a comfortable 6-4 6-1 win over Albot in the first round, confirming the fact that he is in pretty good form right now. The German reached the quarterfinals in Memphis last week, defeating Millman and Paul before losing in a deciding set tiebreak against the eventual finalist Taylor Fritz. Good signs for Becker who needs results after dropping out of the Top 100 due to injuries and poor form.

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Becker leads the Head 2 Head 2-1 (1-1 on hard), but Johnson won the last meeting in clear fashion at the 2014 Irving challenger. As for the matchup analysis, we have two very similar players. Both are very good servers with good forehands and love hard courts.

Becker seems to be in better form and the odds on Johnson are way too low – a clear mistake by the bookies and the price is already going down virtually minutes after odds were released. Johnson might be the more consistent player overall, but quality wise he`s not better than Becker. The two players have a very similar style, they both like the surface, so short term form is the most important factor in the analysis – and Becker has the slight advantage.

It`s interesting that both guys played against Millman and Fritz in the last three matches and Becker posted a better result than Johnson each time. While no match is similar to the other, it does come as some kind of validation that the German is playing the better tennis right now.

Johnson might be a small favorite but I reckon this match can go either way, so there’s definitely a lot of value on Becker to win. Still, I will choose a safer approach and bet on a game handicap. The match will be mostly played on serve, as both guys serve great and it will likely be close, so even if Johnson wins, it’s unlikely he will win by more than 3 games. With this in mind, my tip is Becker to cover the 3,5 game handicap. Great odds by 1x bet and I`m sure the line will slowly move towards 2.5, so I`m taking the bet early.

Definitely still playable at lower odds, whether you choose a Becker win or a 3 game handicap. Prediction: Steve Johnson – Benjamin Becker 7-6 6-7 4-6.

Pick: Becker +3,5
Odds: 1.92 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 17 February