Johnson – Dimitrov

Steve Johnson takes on Grigor Dimitrov in the third round at Wimbledon as a 2.25 underdog and you have to wonder if Steve shouldn`t actually be the favorite in this one.

Johnson has been in devastating form this season on grass. The American reached the quarterfinals at Queens, won Nottingham and cruised in the first two rounds at Wimbledon, winning in straight sets over Jaziri and Chardy. He claimed wins over guys like Gasquet, Anderson, Cuevas or Seppi in the last few weeks on the green. A very steady and consistent performer, Johnson is a very good player on grass, owning a strong serve and having an all around game that works well on this surface.

Dimitrov is having a dreadful season so far. He was Ok in the first few months, but he`s gotten worse and worse. The Bulgarian entered Wimbledon on the back of 6 consecutive losses, including defeats to Del Potro and Tipsarevic on grass. However, he managed to be a bit more steady here at SW 19 and got past Fratangelo in straight sets before defeating Gilles Simon 3-1. He played very well at times, but the match against the in form Johnson will be Dimitrov’s big test and will show if he`s truly back in form.

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The Head 2 Head is tied at 1-1, both meetings taking place last year. Dimitrov actually defeated Johnson here at Wimbledon, 3-0, but the two players were in different form back then. Even so, I remember that match and Johnson definitely deserved to win the first set, it was much closer than the 3-0 scoreline suggests. The American revenged that loss a few weeks later at Washington, winning 2-1. A matchup analysis won`t reveal much, neither player has an advantage in terms of style and both love grass.

Johnson is in much better form and has been simply a better player than Dimitrov lately – he even surpassed him in the ATP World standings. The American has plenty of wins against players of Dimitrov’s caliber or better, so he definitely does not deserve to be the underdog in this match.

Just because Dimitrov defeated Fratangelo and Simon (poor form, poor on grass), does not mean he`s back in form. Even if he finds his game against Johnson, that will not guarantee a win by any means.

Right now Steve Johnson has a good shot against any player outside the Top 10, especially on grass and his strong serve, along with his consistency, should work well against an inconsistent talent like Dimitrov. I think there`s a lot of value on Johnson in this match and I will bet on him with maximum stakes – a bet which I won`t regret even if Dimitrov wins.

I expect Johnson to stay strong on serve and capitalize on the return in the inevitable moments when Dimitrov will make some errors and start playing shaky tennis. My tip is Johnson to win. Prediction: Steve Johnson – Grigor Dimitrov 7-6 3-6 7-5 6-4.

Pick: Johnson
Odds: 2.33 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 13.30
Event date: 1 July