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VFB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV square off in a key relegation duel, with the hosts favored to edge it by the bookies, with odds of about 1.95.
The home side ended 2015 in pretty good form, had good results in the preparation period and proceeded to win the first game of 2016, an impressive 3-1 success at Koln. Overall Stuttgart is undefeated in the last 5 matches (league + cup) and the Koln win allowed them to climb out of the relegation zone after a very long time.
Hamburg is sitting 4 places above Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, on the 11th spot, but they are the exact same opposite of Stuttgart in terms of form. Hamburger SV ended 2015 with some poor results, which continued in the Winter Break and finally they lost their first match of 2016 – though the 1-2 home defeat to Bayern can’t be judged as a poor result.
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Team news & lineups:
Harnik and Ginczek are out for Stuttgart, while Hamburg can’t count on Ekdal and Spahic. Holtby might also be ruled out of the starting lineup.
Stuttgart: Tyton – Großkreutz, Sunjic, Niedermeier, Insua – Rupp, Die – Gentner, Didavi, Kostic – Werner
Hamburg: Adler – Diekmeier, Djourou, Cleber, Ostrzolek – Kacar, Holtby – Müller, Hunt, Ilicevic – Lasogga
Stuttgart surely looks like the team to beat in this match, but I would not be so sure, as Hamburg’s form in 2016 can’t be judged on that (honorable) defeat against Bayern. I am more interested in the under / over market here. Stats say that Stuttgart is one of the most offensive sides in the league, posting a 25 – 38 goal difference in 18 rounds. However, I fancy under 2,5 goals to be scored in this match.
Firstly, Hamburg is a much more defensive team, even if an average of 2,5 goals per game are scored in their matches. But more importantly, Stuttgart is not so goal – friendly at home, having scored just 10 times in 9 games (conceded 17). The hosts are most effective when they can sit back and hit on fast, direct counters, which is their speciallity. The slow possession game is Stuttgart’s weakest point and for this reason they are often involved in low scoring games against weaker teams, or / and at home. This is exactly this kind of match.
I can see Hamburg giving the ball to Stuttgart and defending. Sure, the stats are overwhelming, this is Bundesliga and goals are scored. But if we also consider the massive implications this match has in the relegation battle, it’s also safe to assume that no risks will be taken. Looking at the evenly-matched nature of the clash as well and considering the odds, a bet on under 2,5 goals starts to make sense and the value is definitely great. With all these factors in mind, my tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored, but I am keeping the stakes reasonable. Prediction: VFB Stuttgart – Hamburger SV 1-1.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.19 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 7.14
Event date: 30 January
