Stuttgart – Ingolstadt

Two teams that will likely be involved in the relegation battle at the end of the season will square off at Mercedes-Benz Arena in the 1.Bundesliga ninth round. VFB Stuttgart, who is dead last in the table, particularly desperate for points.

The hosts seem to be in for another dreadful season in which they will be very involved in the relegation battle. Stuttgart is “trying” to relegate for some time, they have been able to save themselves in the last rounds so far, but this can not happen every year. The home side gained just 4 points in the first 8 Bundesliga rounds. On the bright side all these points came in the last three rounds, so there are hopes for improvement – but they came against the 15th and 17th placed teams, Hoffenheim and Hannover.

Due to an excellent defensive gameplan, Ingolstadt is one of the nicest surprises of the season so far. Posting a goal difference of 6-6 in 8 matches, the minnows are curently on the 7th place, fresh of a 2-0 home win over Frankfurt – arguably their most convincing performance of the season. Ingolstadt lost just once in the last 7 matches and twice all season – both times at home. Surely the visitors will feel that their work ethic and excellent tactical consistency will work perfectly against a chaotic team like Stuttgart.

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Team news & lineups:

Ginczek, Langerak and Kruse are out for Stuttgart, with Gentner and Kostic questionable. Ingolstadt has to do without Roger, Cohen and Soares.

Stuttgart: Tyton – Klein, Baumgartl, Sunjic, Insua – Rupp, Die – Didavi, Harnik, Maxim – Werner

Ingolstadt: Ozcan – Levels, Matip, Hubner, Suttner – Gross, Bregerie, Morales – Hartmann, Hinterseer, Leckie

Ingolstadt is the type of opponent that Stuttgart really hates to play – well organized, very good defensively and hard working. Playing at home won`t help Stuttgart too much, actually they have been better away from home in recent years and that is due to the fact that they can not dominate possession and build attacks without being caught on the break. Ingolstadt is in a similar situation, they love to play on the road where they can play a reactive game and what better proof than their record this season – 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 matches away from home.

Look for Ingolstadt to concede the ball, giving possession to Stuttgart and looking to create damage on counterattacks. I expect Stuttgart to struggle breaking down the rock solid Ingolsdadt defense – especially with the hosts missing some of their key offensive players like Ginczek, Kruse or possibly Kostic. At the same time, the visitors have a decent shot to score on the break and even win this game.

It doesn`t seem realistic to expect Stuttgart to hand Ingolstadt their first defeat on the road. My tip is Ingolstadt +0,5 handicap, great odds on this bet. Prediction: VFB Stuttgart – Ingolstadt 0-1.

Pick: Ingolstadt +0,5
Odds: 2.10 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 18 October