Swansea – Burnley

Swansea City produced a shocker in the first Premier League round by winning at Old Trafford 2-1, but the Welsh side knows that win will mean nothing if they do not back it up with another 3 points at home against newcomers Burnley, a game in which they enter as heavy odds favorites.

Of course, we should not dwell too much on Swansea`s win against United, it does not make them world beaters all of a sudden, but the reality is Swansea put on a masterclass defensive performances, frustrating United and denying them too many goal scoring chances. Even if Swansea has the best players in offense (Bony, Gomis) they look like a very well organized side, good discipline, good defense – these things are coming from a good cohesiveness and keeping Gary Monk as manager might have been an excellent idea.

Burnley`s direct promotion from the Championship was a bit of a surprise in my opinion, but they deserved it. However, the visitors are clearly the main favorite for relegation this year and they did not play a great game in the first round – the 1-3 defeat against Chelsea was expected, but Burnley never looked likely to get a result despite opening the score – they were down 3-1 after half an hour. Burnley`s main strength is their defense – the defense got them promoted and they will rely on it to stay up. They are a very good home team, struggling a little bit on the road.

Team news & lineups

Swansea City will be without Donelly, Britton, Fulton and Emnes. Burnley misses Vokes and Dummigan.

Swansea City: Fabianski – Rangel, Williams, Amat, Taylor – Shelvey, Ki – Dyer, Sigurdsson, Routledge – Bony

Burnley: Heaton – Trippier, Mee, Shackell, Ward – Arfield, Marney, Jones, Taylor, Ings – Jutkiewic

I don`t think Swansea will have it easy against an ambitious Burnley side, the handicap on them looks a stretch, but in the end I reckon the quality difference, home court advantage and morale will help the hosts record a win. It should also be a low scoring game, Burnley will surely be more careful in the start after receiving 3 goals from Chelsea in the first 30 minutes, while Swansea proved to be a very pragmatic side in the first round. I doubt Swansea will allow a poor offensive side like Burnley too many chances and the visitors will be focused on defense anyway. My tip is Swansea to win to nil- safer than the handicap and at better odds. Prediction: Swansea City – Burnley 1-0.

Pick: Swansea to win to nil
Odds: 2.65 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 11.55
Event date: 23 August