Swansea – Fulham

Swansea and Fulham will face off in a match with huge implications in the relegation battle Tuesday at the Liberty Stadium.

After a great season last year, which included winning the League Cup, Swansea has been very disappointing so far in 2013/2014. Even if the welsh team suffered some squad upgrades, including the 12 million signing of striker Bony, Swansea could not cope with playing on 4 fronts and their Premier League form had to suffer. The hosts are currently on 15th place in the standings, just 3 points over the relegation zone, and have played really bad recently in the league. Swansea has only 1 point in the last 6 Premier League outings and the last time they won in the competition was 9 rounds ago against Newcastle. However, Swansea has competed much better in the FA Cup, as they defeated Manchester United at Old Trafford just 3 weeks ago and they also routed Birmingham 2-1 on the road this Saturday.

Much like Swansea, Fulham has underachieved greatly so far this season. Despite having a solid squad, the visitors are arguably the worst team in the league regarding the football they play. They are just above the relegation zone on 17th place, but with a single point in front off West Ham, Sunderland and Cardiff. Fulham has the worst goal difference in the league (22-48) and by far the worst defense, conceding more than 2 goals per game in average. Rene Meulensteen was appointed as manager instead of Martin Jol 2 months ago, but with not much success. Fulham`s form is pretty decent lately, with just 2 losses in the last 6 games (all competitions). The team is on the back of a 1-1 away draw at Sheffield United in the FA Cup in a very poor performance.

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Team news & lineups

Swansea has a full infirmary for this game. Michu, Shevley, Rangel, Canas and Monk are out, while Vorm, De Guzman and Dyer are doubtful. Fulham will have to do without Amorebieta, Riise and Briggs.

Swansea: Tremmel – Rangel, Chico, Williams, Davies – Britton, Amat, Pozuelo – Routledge, Bony, Hernandez

Fulham: Stekelenburg – Riether, Senderos, Hughes, Riise – Parker, Sidwell, Kasami – Kacaniklic, Berbatov, Dempsey

My initial thought was to pick Swansea to win, as they are the better team, playing at home, and I always felt they were a little unlucky to perform so poorly in the league – they really should be top 10 at least. However, considering their recent form and the fact that they will miss a couple of key players (Michy, Shevley, possibly Vorm and De Guzman) makes me forfait that bet and go with what I think is the better betting option: over 2,5 goals.

Swansea is an offensive minded team, their 27-33 goal difference proves it, and they recorded four over 2,5 games in their last five. Swansea needs to win this, they will no doubt play open football trying to get the three points. Fulham`s defense is absolutely horrible and they will allow a high number of chances for sure, but on the other hand the visitors can score themselves against an out of form, attacking-minded Swansea side. Swansea has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 8 Premier League matches. My tip here is over 2,5 goals. Prediction: Swansea – Fulham 2-1.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.24
Event date: 28 January