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The difference between these two teams is about as high as it can get in the playoffs, and I will say from the start that nothing less than a big home win is expected.
Swansea won the League Cup last year and finished 9th in the Premier League. They are a really great team from all points of view and they only got stronger this season, breaking the bank with a 12 million pounds capture of striker Wilfried Bony. Swansea was excellent in friendlies, easily dispatched Malmo in the 3rd qualifying round after a 4-0 home win, but they suffered a humiliating 1-4 home defeat to Manchester United in the first round of the Premier League.
Petrolul is no Manchester United though, and Swansea should want to avenge that tough loss with a solid win of their own today. Petrolul is about the same quality as Malmo, maybe just a little bit better. They are one of the top 4 teams at the moment in Romania, mainly due to a dip in quality in Romanian football, with strong teams like Dinamo, CFR, Rapid or Vaslui having all sorts of sporting and financial trouble lately. The visitors are an ok team, many foreigners, good attacking display. They knocked out Vitesse (1-1 at home, 2-1 away), after a last second goal in Holland. The tie could have gone either way, as Vitesse was actually a little bit more dangerous in front of goal over the two rounds.
The romanians are not in the best form in the league, just 2 wins and 3 draws in five rounds. And they only faced a single top 5 team.
One of the key facts for this match is that Swansea is very motivated to do well in Europa League. Manager Laudrup is rating this competition very high and he demands the best from his players, even in these early stages. He said it over and over. He sent the first team at Malmo in the 3rd qualifying round after winning 4-0 at home, and that is proof enough that Swansea are not underestimating the Europa League. After all, its their first european campaign ever.
Note that both teams are home teams, playing their best on their own turf, so a big advantage in this regard today.
Team news
Only Jonathan De Guzman misses the game for Swansea. Laudrup could make just a few changes in the first eleven with Tottenham waiting for Swansea in the weekend, but the welsh will be very close to full strength. Petrolul has a few unavailable players, but none will be missed more than top goalscorer Bokila, who chose to run away from the team at the start of the season.
Both teams are very well coached, Laudrup and Contra being two quality managers.
Swansea: Vorm – Rangel, Chico, Amat, Taylor – Britton (c), Shelvey, Michu – Hernandez, Bony, Routledge
Petrolul: Pecanha – Achim, Alves (c), Enza-Yamissi, Guilherme – Hoban – Boudjemaa, de Lucas, Grozav – Dore, Younes
Bony and Michu are playing brilliant together in attack, and with Petrolul not being a good defensive team, they will have problems stopping them. Swansea is motivated and will want to finish off the romanians from the first leg, so covering the spread looks extremely likely. The welsh have both superior quality and great tactical organization, so Petrolul really doesn`t have too many arguments to hope for something here, while Swansea has every possible advantage: home court, motivation, quality, form and so on.
Swansea will dominate the game from start to finish and can put 3-4 goals over their inferior opponents without too much stress. Petrolul will give it their all and maybe they can leave the pitch with their heads up after something like 1-3, but the fact is that they could be in for a long night. Personally, I have the utmost confidence in this one.
Pick: Swansea (-1,5)
Odds: 2.19 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 11.90
Event date: 22 August
