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Sweden still has a mathematical chance of finishing first in the standings. If they defeat Austria and Germany loses to Ireland, than Sweden will play the germans with the first place up for grabs in the last match of the group. However, this is a long-shot and Sweden must focus more on securing the 2nd place in today. Austria is just 3 points behind with a better goal difference (and playing Faroe next), so Sweden really needs to win this game considering they could well lose to Germany in the last match of the group. This is a key match in deciding the final standings of the group.
Sweden has a very solid team, like always, but they produced mixed performances so far in the qualifying stage. Still, last month they showed impressive football to get a win in Dublin against Ireland. Sweden has 2 wins and a draw at home so far. Ibrahimovic will be expected to lead the show for Sweden, as he has the quality to win a game single handed.
Austria have overachieved so far in my opinion, since they don`t have the adequate talent to be part of the World Cup or even the playoffs. The visitors are still in with a chance to finish second in the standings thanks to their home record, because away from home they have yet to win a game, even against lowly Kazakhstan.
Regarding team news, there are no game-changing injuries or suspensions for either side. Ekdal and Antonsson are missing for Sweden, while Austria can`t count on key defensive men Fuchs and Baumgartlinger.
Watching the previous game against these two teams, Austria had their chances to finish the swedes off, but in the end of the match Sweden really piled up the pressure and showed their superiority, they were unlucky to lose 2-1 and were arguably robbed by the referee. The game clearly left an impression that Sweden should revenge the loss at home.
Though Sweden needs a win, they really can`t afford to lose and you might expect them to be partially satisfied with a draw, hoping to get a point in the last round against an already qualified Germany. My guess is that at this level you don`t do this kind of math and you try to get the three points (especially with Sweden – Germany and Faroe – Austria in the last round), but this is a personal opinion. But Austria absolutely has to go for the win and they will leave open spaces at the back sooner or later in the match. With the individual talent Sweden has up front, you`d expect the nordic side to take advantage of that if they don`t impose their superiority earlier. The fact that Austria is very poor away from home should also make the difference in favor of Sweden. My pick is something like 2-0 for the hosts, they are the better team and they should book their place in the playoffs with a win today.
Pick: Sweden
Odds: 1.74 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.92
Event date: 11 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 9 for 13 in October
