Sweden – Austria

Sweden will play a crucial home game against Austria in Group G of the Euro 2016 qualifiers, while Austria will know that they will secure qualifiation to the final tournament with just a point. Currently the visitors lead the group 7 points ahead of second placed Sweden and 8 points ahead of third placed Russia.

Sweden really blew it a few days ago. They were in a good position to qualify and a draw in Russia would have been huge. The Swedes were undefeated and entered the match with confidence, but they weren`t able to keep a struggling Russian team at bay, lost 1-0 and now have only 1 point ahead, facing a much tougher opponent today (Russia plays in Liechtenstein).

Austria dominated this group in style, playing some very nice football to put such a distance between them and the main competitors. The visitors won 6 out of 7 games, the only “hiccup” being a 1-1 draw at home with today’s opponents, Sweden. However, Austria looked a bit disconnected a few days ago when they met Moldova, barely winning 1-0 in a poor match. It looked like the Austrians did not try as hard, since they are already virtually qualified. They can make qualification official if they gain a point today in Solna, but that`s just for statistics – their presence in Euro 2016 is clearly secured.

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Team news: The big news is that Ibrahimovic is doubtful for Sweden, having picked up an injury in the match against Russia, maybe one of the reasons for which Sweden did not pose much threat in Moscow. Otherwise, the two teams are in pretty much the same state as in their previous matches on Saturday.

Even if Austria is as good as qualified and some might expect them to come here guns blazing, putting caution to the side, I reckon they will still try and get a draw to make it official – so they can maybe rest some players and give some youngsters a chance in the next National team roundup. I think they will come for the draw here and looking at how they performed against Moldova, it`s doubtful that they can take anything more than that against a strong, desperate side like Sweden.

For the hosts a draw will not be a particularly good result, as Russia will likely pass them for the 2nd place, but it would not be a disaster either – Sweden has an easier schedule than Russia in the last two matches. A loss today for Sweden, however, (coupled with a Russian in in Liechtenstein) will make it almost impossible for Sweden to finish second.

I expect a cautious game for both sides and in the end nobody seems to have enough to be considered a clear favorite. I believe in the draw here, but I will take security in case of a Sweden win. They are much more motivated and if they play a good game they could edge this, but it would be very difficult if Ibrahimovic does not play. My tip is Draw – Sweden win no bet and the odds at Bwin are spectacular compared to the prices at other bookies (which are about 1.70 – 1.75). This pick is won with a draw and we get a void bet if Sweden wins. Prediction: Sweden – Austria 1-1.

Pick: Draw – Sweden win no bet
Odds: 1.91 @ Bwin
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 8 September