Daniel – Paul

Taro Daniel and Tommy Paul will both attempt to reach the second round at the US Open for the first time in their careers.

Daniel played just three matches on hard courts after Wimbledon, losing in the first round at Los Cabos against Dzumhur, and reaching the second round at the Vancouver challenger (def. Rubin, lost to Schnur). The Japanese player had a solid year for his standards, particularly at challenger level, but he lost all form once the European clay court season ended. Daniel now lost 7 of his last 8 matches, and only two of those matches was against Top 100 players.

The talented 20 year old Tommy Paul is navigating the best period of his career right now, as he has been brilliant so far in the American hard court swing. Paul posted an 8-3 win loss record in his last three tournaments, all of them ATP level – reaching the quarterfinals at Atlanta and Washington, as well as the second round in Cincinnati. The American defeated the likes of Pouille, Muller, Chung or Young along the way, while his 3 losses came against top guys like Muller, Nishikori and Isner.

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This will be the first meeting between Taro Daniel and Tommy Paul. Both players like to play from the baseline, but Tommy Paul has a bit more variation in his arsenal, and he is also more accomplished on hard courts. Daniel is an all rounder and he is certainly capable on hard courts himself, but he prefers clay.

Tommy Paul enters the US Open with much more rhythm than Daniel, having played a lot of matches and having claimed a lot of great results against very good players – all this while Daniel played just 3 matches on the American hard courts against a lower level of opposition, and lost two of them.

Paul took the previous week off, so the amount of tennis he played recently shouldn`t have any negative effect – on the contrary, it will give him rhythm and confidence. He`s just 20 years old and this will be his first match in almost two weeks.

I expect Tommy Paul to win this match rather comfortably against a less talented opponent who has less rhythm and is definitely in much worse form than him. Daniel doesn`t have too many weapons at his disposal to change a match in his favor, so he has to bring his “A game” for him to have a chance against most good players. He is far from playing his best tennis right now and even if he will raise his level, it will likely not be enough against an in form Paul who is playing at home, where he is comfortable.

My tip is Tommy Paul to cover the 1,5 set handicap, I expect him to win this in 3 or 4 sets and I feel set betting is safer than bets on under or on the handicap, although the -4,5 point spread also looks Ok. Prediction: Taro Daniel – Tommy Paul 4-6 7-6 2-6 3-6.

Pick: Paul -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.85 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 29 August