Berdych – Seppi

The last quarterfinal in Doha will see Tomas Berdych take on Andreas Seppi, with the Birdman as a 1.15 odds favorite in this hard court clash.

Berdych had a strange season last year and the overall feeling was that he lost a step, but Tomas started 2015 in excellent form, playing some of his best tennis in a long time – most likely an effect of the coaching staff change he made. Berdych cruised against the likes of Istomin, Kavcic and Gasquet here in Doha – pretty strong opponents for the early rounds, and the Czech star did not lose more than 5 games in any of his three matches. Berdych`s 6-1 6-2 demolition of Gasquet on Thursday was particularly impressive.

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Having watched Seppi in his 2 set win over Dodig yesterday I have to say that the Italian is not playing particularly solid tennis. He won thanks to Dodig’s inconsistency, coming back from a break down in each set. Andreas made a lot of errors (22 unforced in the first set!) which will hurt him badly against a solid opponent, considering he doesn’t have too many offensive weapons. His serve was also non-existent, Dodig attacking every one of his second serves – a thing Berdych is more than capable of doing himself. Previously here in Doha, Seppi defeated Leonardo Mayer in three sets and Joao Souza in two sets.

Berdych leads the H2H 6-2 (5-1 on hard) and he won the last 5 meetings between the two. Additionally, Tomas did not lose a single set in the 6 wins over Seppi, which pretty clearly proves that he likes to play against the Italian.

I really expect Berdych to win this comfortably in 2 sets and I reckon he should cover the handicap as well – the line is currently set at 4,5 and he should have no problem covering that against a player that can’t hold his serve to save his life. Look for Tomas to be assertive on his own serve and attack Seppi’s second ball just like Dodig did yesterday. The Italian is not playing his best tennis despite his quarterfinal run and an in-form Berdych should get another blowout win today – after all he did cover a 4,5 game handicap in 5 of his 6 wins against Seppi. A Berdych win in straight sets would also be a solid tip, but the odds are lower. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Andreas Seppi 6-4 6-2.

Pick: Berdych -4,5
Odds: 1.70 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.6
Event date: 9 January