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Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils square off in a rather surprising Monte Carlo semifinal, with both players having the chance to record one of the most impressive performances of their careers.
Tomas Berdych has been his usual self here in Monte Carlo, continuing on the same positive trend he had in 2015, playing some great tennis. However, he was fortunate to avoid meeting top players – only facing Milos Raonic, who retired with an injury in the first set. Berdych was dominating until Raonic’s retirement, but Milos was not himself. All in all, Birdman is having a terrific season, boosting a record of 24 wins out of 24 matches against players out of Top 10. He struggled against Top 10 players, losing 5 out of 7 (5 out of 6 if we discard Raonic’s retirement yesterday).
Monfils was far from impressive in his first match against Kuznetsov, a match he should have lost, but experience got him out of trouble in three sets. He was looking unfit and below his usual standards of movement – I could have never seen him reach the semifinals. However, Monfils steadily improved, playing better and better each round: 7-6 7-6 over Dolgopolov, 6-4 7-6 over Federer and 6-1 6-3 over Dimitrov. Granted, Federer and especially Dimitrov were making a lot of errors, but Monfils took credit for that, stating his gameplan of playing deep groundstrokes and moving his opponents over the length of the court. This gameplan could work good against Berdych as well.
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Monfils seemed to play better tennis this week, but Berdych has been more stable over the course of the season and it’s hard to argue against his stats against players out of the Top 10 – though Monfils is clearly playing at a Top 10 level right now. Also, matchups make matches and Tomas has a 5-1 advantage in the Head 2 Head department (1-1 on clay). He defeated Monfils just two weeks ago in Miami, but Gael retired in the second set – thus a more correct Head 2 Head score is 4-1.
The winner here is really hard to predict and it’s one of the few cases when it`s also very hard to find value on the moneyline market, with the odds pretty much even. I can`t see any of the two conceding a shot or a step, as it is a huge match for both players and they are both in fine form. Look for a lot of focus on serve and a lot of effort in the rallies. Monfils could get the upper hand with his defense and movement, but the Birdman has the weapons and the form to force Gael out of position and finish him off with forehand winners.
It should be a very tight match which will most likely go to three sets and might be decided by the slimmest of margins, but my tip of over 22 games can easily be covered in two sight sets as well – and even at 7-6 6-3 we will not lose. Considering the estimated safety of the pick, I will bet maximum stakes. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Gael Monfils 6-4 3-6 6-7.
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Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.68 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 18 April
