Berdych – Hewitt

Tomas Berdych takes on former champion Lleyton Hewitt in what is arguably the most anticipated clash of the US Open first round. The odds are clearly in favor of the Czech player, but Lleyton has proved he can still take on the best tennis players in the world on his day.

Berdych has been really disappointing for his standards in the last couple of months (since the clay court season started) and has not recovered until now. I watched Tomas in a couple of Grand Slam matches at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and he was way below his best level of tennis. His serve is not getting him too many free points and most notably his shots lack power, he seems unable to dominate and is forced into long rallies, where he usually ends up making an error. Of course, he`s still a top player, but if he does not improve soon he will surely drop out of the Top 10, maybe even top 15 – his game is just not good enough. So far in the American hard court season Berdych has 2 wins and 3 losses, being defeated by Pospisil (a blow out), Feliciano Lopez and Yen Hsun Lu last week in the 1st round in Winston-Salem.

Hewitt`s season was very strange so far. Lleyton won 2 titles at Brisbane (defeated Federer) and Newport and showed incredible tennis  in those two weeks, playing at a fantastic level, but aside from those tournaments he was poor, never winning 2 consecutive matches. A monument of consistency in his best years, Lleyton is looking really mercurial right now, he alternates top class performances with very poor ones – age has caught up with him, but on the bright side he can still challenge the best in the world on his day.

Tomas leads the H2H 2-0 (1-0 on hard courts), but the last meeting was in 2009 so the H2H stats are totally irrelevant. On paper Hewitt should have a matchup edge with his defensive baseline game, but he lost the consistency that made him famous.

Listen, Berdych is the favorite without a doubt in this match, but the way he has been playing recently, nobody can say Hewitt does not have a fighting chance. I`m pretty sure Berdych won`t improve, especially in the first round, so it all comes down to Hewitt – if he finds the level he last showed 1 month ago in Newport, he has a very good chance of winning this. A key aspect is that Lleyton is well known for making huge Top 10 upsets in the first rounds of Grand Slams in the last 2-3 years: Wawrinka (Wimbledon 2013), Del Potro (US Open 2013) or Roddick (Australian Open 2012), and also beating other highly rated players like Nishikori, Raonic or Monfils in Slams. This year he defeated Federer in the Brisbane final.

We know Hewitt can still beat the best, we know he does it on a regular basis early at Slams and we know Berdych is way off pace, so there`s every reason to try a bet on the Australian. Berdych has grinded out tough wins in the early rounds of Roland Garros and Wimbledon, the way he`s hitting the ball right now he`s just begging for an early exit. My tip will be Hewitt to won – no set handicaps, no game handicaps, just picking the value in the odds – if Hewitt does not show up he could very well lose in 3 sets. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Lleyton Hewitt 6-3 5-7 6-7 3-6.

Pick: Hewitt
Odds: 4.33 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 19.98
Event date: 27 August