Berdych – Cilic

Tomas Berdych and Marin Cilic will take the court today hoping to reach the US Open semifinals, where the winner will most likely face Roger Federer.

I disrespected Berdych a lot during this tournament, tipping him to lose against Hewitt and struggle against Thiem. Despite the fact that Tomas is one of my favorite players I just could not see him succeed after playing very poorly for his standards in the last couple of months, when he was moving bad, hitting with no power and serving ineffective. However, I was proved wrong by Tomas. He had problems in the second round against Klizan but apparently that 5 setter helped him to sort out his game and Berdych cruised to this quarterfinal, most notably destroying Thiem with some top class serving and power play 2 days ago. Berdych has found his rhythm, the match against Thiem clearly proved that and he`s playing at his best level right now.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Cilic had a great year and he`s really looking close to top 10 material, maybe even ready for that final breakthrough in Grand Slams. The Croatian did well to overcome a suspension last year and got back in rhythm in 2014, the last few months have been solid and here he is now playing for a place in the US Open semifinals. Marin played very good tennis in this tournament but, however, he does seem to be lacking somthing. He routed Simon in a 5 set thriller in a last round but it was a win that rather rased question marks about Cilic`s game, as he was mostly unable to break down the Simon defense and in my opinion the win was grinded out, a little undeserved. Simon played well but Cilic made too many unforced errors and very often had problems on his own serve. He has to increase his level today, something I`m not quite sure he can.

Berdych leads the H2H 5-3 (3-1 on hard, 1-1 in 2014) but the last encounter was a tight 3 set Cilic win in the Wimbledon 3rd round. A great win for Ciclic but Berdych was way off his best in that match, it was also a controversial ending as there was no daylight left, Berdych was extremely angry and surely he will want revenge here.

I just can`t look past Berdych in this match. Listen, Cilic is a solid player in good form but he`s not in an absolute top form, his game had visible flaws against Simon and that`s just not cutting it at this level. His 5 setter against Simon could also be a handicap fitness -wise. Berdych played a fantastic 4th round against Thiem, he suddenly regained his top level of tennis and that should be enough against a slightly inferior player with much less Grand Slam experience. Tomas will be the aggressor here, moving Cilic around, and the Croatian showed he is vulnerable with his movement and reactive game in the last round. Cilic will make it interesting and might snatch a set, but Berdych to win is the obvious bet here and his win should be unquestionable from start to finish. He will outplay and outpower Cilic. Berdych to win is the bet of the tournament so far for me, so i`m going with maximum stakes. I wanted to pick a game handicap or a set handicap, but I`m going with the safest bet (even at lower odds). Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Marin Cilic 6-3 6-7 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Berdych
Odds: 1.60 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 4 September